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2011 Qatar Prix De L´Arc De Triomphe (Group 1) Arc Preview
SO YOU THINK - pic: Guardian
This Sunday (2nd Oct – 3.15pm UK time) sees the running of the 2011 Prix De L´Arc De Triomphe at Longchamp, where Workforce bids to repeat his winning feat last year, something that has previously only ever been done by 6 horses, since the first race in 1920.
A field of 16 line up for the second richest horse race on turf, over a distance of 1m4f and worth just under £2million prize money for the winner this year.
This year’s favourite was the Aga Khan’s 4 year-old Sarafina, who was slightly shorter in the market than So You Think, but after today’s stalls draw they’re now joint favourites at 4/1.
Arc Stats/Trends:
14 of the last 17 Arc winners have been 3 year-olds…
Fillies & mares have gained only 1 win and 4 places from 25 runners…
9 of the last 10 winners were priced 10/1 or less…
The last 10 winners were having their first start in the race…
The favourite has won 4 of the last 10…
Race Related Stats:
Alain de Royer-Dupre has a 25% win rate at Longchamp…
Seamie Heffernan has ridden So You Think on 3 occassions – Won all 3…
So You Think has earned the most prize money, £3.8million…
8 of the 16 entered horses are Course & Distance winners…
WORKFORCE beats NAKAYAMA FESTA, Arc 2010 - pic: Racing Post
Neck on the line time:
A Wide open race I feel… I don’t think Workforce will win. Also don’t think Sarafina or So You Think will. Sarafina has very narrowly won her last two races, has more weight to carry this time, and wasn’t catching Workforce last year, finishing nearly 3 lengths back.
I don’t feel So You Think has much left to give after 10f, but what an impressive record! Finishing only once out of the top 3 in 17 races, 12 of which have been Group 1′s.
Which brings us on to Workforce. Shock defeat to Nathaniel last time out, and the race prior (Coral Eclipse) was beaten by So You Think, after being infront, plus there are reported to be concerns about the ground.
I would like to see GALIKOVA win, but all her wins, and even all her races, have been either good to soft, or soft, and I can’t see going being that come Sunday. Also the stats say this isn’t a race that filles/mares have much chance of winning. But she does have a good draw in stall 4.
I’ve gone for the easy approach – two each way shots, both of the Japanese raiders: Hiruno D’Amour (16/1) and Nakayama Festa (25/1). Hiruno D’Amour (drawn 1) finished a neck behind Sarafina earlier this month in the Qatar Prix Foy, and won a big money Japanese Group 1 before that. Nakayama Festa was second in last year’s Arc (see pic above) to Workforce, and a place infront of Sarafina. He also featured in the Prix Foy, his first race for nearly a year.
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GOLDIKOVA
Also, don’t forget to watch GOLDIKOVA (2.30pm) as she aims for her 15th Group 1 win in the Qatar Prix de la Foret.
A top card with all 7 races being Group 1′s. Coverage on BBC TV (Full race coverage on Racing UK). Unfortunately unbeaten 2 year-old filly Maybe has been withdrawn from the Prix Marcel Boussac.
article by: @MartWes
Retweets Welcome, Thank You.
Sat 24th Sept – Horses & Football
MARKET RASEN Racecourse
Update:
Not the best day at all. Two horses I picked out but didn’t put on here, or do in singles, both won (Lightening Pearl & Book’em Danno). The danger I thought in Pepper Lane’s race won (Advanced)… One of my other ‘follow horses’ got 2nd: Dubai Dynamo at Chester. Football accumulator only had 3 wins, and Rooney isn’t even playing!
To sum it up: my betting account is empty and I’m not impressed.
Thanks for taking the time to read my blog. I’ve covered most meetings today. I had 3 bets this week, resulting in 2 wins (Hazy Tom 11/8, Shouda 7/2) and a 3rd, but Saturday racing is always much harder.
MARKET RASEN:
1.50 Pollen Jock (7/1 each way) is a horse I follow, and he has good form here. Second on his last effort, so drop in trip today should be a wise move. Main danger could be Businessmoney Judi. (5th, should of got 3rd)
2.20 – A tough race, I could pick 3. But I will stay loyal to another horse I follow: Rajnagan (7/1 each way). Finished 4th last time here, in a Listed race. (3rd, so got each way money)
NEWMARKET:
3.10 I’m guessing most will think Sahpresa will win this. I’ve opted for Alanza (7/2). Big step up in class, but John Oxx has 100% record in England so far this year. The extra furlong should help. And the horse hasn’t been suplemented just for the fresh air. (6th, never in it)
3.50 (Cambridgeshire) I’ll take a chance on Questioning (10/1 each way) Gosden has won this race 3 out of last 5 years, although the horse hasn’t won on grass, but has been placed 3 out of last 5 races, 2nd to King Torus latest. (near last)
HAYDOCK:
2.15 You will see there’s a theme developing today… Kenyan Cat (13/2), another horse I follow. There’s nearly 40 horses on my ‘follow list’. I haven’t picked them today just for that reason. I do think they have a chance of winning. (2nd, short head)
RIPON:
4.15 I chose Pepper Lane (6/1) last week for the Ayr Gold Cup, the ground (mud) didn’t suit that day, but today she’s back at Ripon where she does well. So I’m sticking with her for today. It’s risky though as she’s carrying a LOT of weight. (unplaced)
No bet, but I’d like to see Fazza win the 3.45.
NAVAN:
4.25 Loosen My Load (4/6) should win this. Best horse by far. (WON)
CHESTER:
5.20 Barons Spy (12/1 each way). Won once at the course, and 7 times at the distance. Finishes well. (unplaced)
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DANNY WILSON Sheff Utd Manager - pic: The Star
FOOTBALL:
I did a 7-fold accumulator on Tuesday. I feel all the teams should win. But chances of all 7? Very slim. 86/1 in fact. You never know though. The teams are:
- Southampton @ 6/5 DREW
- Derby @ 13/10 WON
- West Ham @ 8/15 WON
- Middlesbrough @ 4/6 DREW
- Sheff Utd @ EVS LOST
- Sheff Wed @ 8/13 WON
- MK Dons @ 11/10 DREW
If you just want a treble, both Sheffield teams + Middlesbrough = 4/1
Wayne Rooney or Nani to score first is 7/4 (v. Stoke) (WON! Nani, Rooney not even in squad)
Retweets welcome. thanks.
QIPCO British Champions Day
QIPCO British Champions Day
BROWN PANTHER
ASCOT – Saturday 15th October 2011
This is the ground-breaking event that the QIPCO British Champions Series leads up to, when the eyes of the racing world will be focused on Ascot for the richest day in British racing history. £3 million in prize money will be on offer across the final races in each of the five QIPCO British Champions Series categories. It represents a fantastic opportunity for the equine stars of the 2011 Flat racing season to compete on one of the world’s greatest stages on one momentous day. Important changes have been made to the autumn race programme in Britain in order to create QIPCO British Champions Day as the major championship climax to the Flat racing season that this country has previously lacked. Now the scene is set for a thrilling raceday on Ascot’s royal turf, when sporting history will be made as the curtain comes down in dramatic fashion on the inaugural QIPCO British Champions Series.
HOOF IT
The QIPCO British Champions Long Distance Cup
With two demanding miles (3,200 metres) of Ascot’s famous turf to negotiate, the £200,000 QIPCO British Champions Long Distance Cup will provide a thorough test of stamina for flat racing’s top stayers as they contest the final major long distance race of the British season
The QIPCO British Champions Sprint Stakes
This six furlong (1,200 metres) contest provides the finale to the QIPCO British Champions Series Sprint category, with prize money of £250,000.
The QIPCO British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes
The £250,000 climax to the QIPCO British Champions Series Fillies & Mares category over 1½ miles (2,400 metres) provides a fantastic end-of-season target for the top female stars of the turf.
FRANKEL
The Queen Elizabeth II Stakes Sponsored by QIPCO (British Champions Mile)
Long recognised as Europe’s mile championship, 1,600 metre races come no bigger than this anywhere on the international stage. With a cool million pounds in prize money, the race now enters a different stratosphere.
The QIPCO Champion Stakes (British Champions Middle Distance)
With £1.3 million in prize money, the QIPCO Champion Stakes will be the most valuable horse race ever run in Britain. Run over 1¼ miles (2,000 metres), this will be the final, pulsating showdown in the QIPCO British Champions Series Middle Distance category.
ALL TEXT AND PHOTOS Courtesy of:
http://www.britishchampionsseries.com/races/qipco-british-champions-day.html
Buy Tickets Here: https://www.ascotkiosk.co.uk/connect/index.html
Sat 17th Sept – Ayr Gold Cup + Football
PEPPER LANE - pic: Sporting Life
A quick blog update in advance for this Saturday, as I won’t be online. Just the one horse racing bet. And a couple of football ones…
These are bets I will be doing myself. Up to you if you invest your hard earned too, if you do I wish you all the best, and hope you get a profit.
AYR GOLD CUP 3.20pm
Pepper Lane – Best priced 14/1 at Ladbrokes. Each Way (4 places, although William Hill offering 5, but only 12/1)
I had this horse last time out when she easily won the William Hill Great St Wilfrid Handicap (Class 2) at Ripon in August at 11/1, beating 6 of these runners. These races are really a lottery, 27 runners in an all out 6 furlong sprint, so anything could win, main dangers I see are Colonel Mak and Regal Parade. Pepper Lane has won 4 of her 6 races this season, the latest being on good to soft, with the expected going for this race soft/good to soft. Up 6lbs for that Ripon win. (Unplaced)
ASHLEY YOUNG - pic: Mirror Football
FOOTBALL:
Man Utd & Man City double. Which pays just under 2/1. (Man Utd won 3-1, City were 2-0 up but drew 2-2!)
I think there’s some value in Sergio Aguero or David Silva to score first at 5/2. (WON – Aguero scored first)
Sun 11th Sept, Winning bets + Today’s Horses
9/1 Accumulator
Winning Treble
A good day for a change yesterday. Had a winning 4-fold Football Accumulator, which was nearly 9/1. Southampton, Brighton, Charlton & West Ham all won.
Also did a treble, Power & Al Ghalanta to place and Rooney or Hernandez to score first v. Bolton, and they all came up. That paid just under 6/1.
Bet slips here, click for full size (I also had the Irish St Leger winner aswell in a ante-post
multiple bet, which you can see on the right slip):
GALIKOVA - pic: Bloodhorse.com
HORSES TODAY:
Longchamp (all to win):
1.30 Meandre, 11/10 (2nd)
2.40 Excelebration, 6/4 (WON – 1st)
3.15 Galikova, Evs. (WON – 1st)
Ffos Las:
4.30 Protaras – Place Only, 2 places: 10/11 (WON – finished 2nd)
Goodwood:
1.55 Tuscan Gold – Place Only, 3 places: 5/6 (WON - finished 3rd)
3.35 Starwatch – Place Only, 3 places: 11/10 (WON – 1st) SP: 9/1
4.40 Spice Fair – Place Only, 3 places: 4/6 (4th)
5.15 Oneladyowner – Place Only, 3 places: 8/11 (WON – 3rd)
(Also, Accumulator on the 5 horses to place = 20/1) << 4 out of 5 did the business!
Sat 10th Football & Horse Racing
ROONEY scores in the 8-2 win against Arsenal
Welcome to today’s Blog update. I’ve gone for something different this week, Bets I think that offer good value, and aren’t actual Outright Win bets. The two Man Utd bets are each all one bet, ie. Rooney or Hernandez is part of the same bet. (all odds: William Hill)
FOOTBALL
Manchester City v. Wigan Athletic
Total Goals, Over 3: 6/5 (City won 3-0, Tevez missed penalty!)
Bolton Wanderers v. Manchester United
Wayne Rooney or Javier Hernandez to Score First: 13/8 (WON – Hernandez after 4 mins)
A cover bet for that could be Man Utd to come from behind and Draw or Win: 15/4
DONCASTER Racecourse - St Leger
DONCASTER:
2.35: York Glory, Place Only – 4 Places: 11/8 (5th!)
3.10 (St Leger): Census, Place Only – 3 Places: 10/11 (5th!)
CURRAGH:
2.40: An Ghalanta, Place Only – 3 Places: 4/5 (WON – finished 3rd)
3.15: Power, Place Only – 3 Places 4/9 (WON – 1st)
Frederick Engels – Sold to race in Hong Kong
FREDERICK ENGELS winning Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot - pic: Guardian
Update: 28th Dec 2011:
Frederick Engels will keep the same race name, and will start racing in Hong Kong in the Spring 2012.
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Racing Post announced the shock news tonight, that “FREDERICK ENGELS isn’t expected to race ever again at a UK racecourse, after being sold by Pearl Bloodstock to race in Hong Kong”.
One of the best 2-year-old colts this season, he came to prominence winning the 5 furlong Windsor Castle Stakes, a Listed race at Royal Ascot in June, and then following that up less than a month later with the Group 2 TNT July Stakes at Newmarket over 6 furlongs. Since then things have taken a downward turn. I believe through no fault of the horse or trainer. He went from winning his last 3 races in a row to finishing 6th and 5th in the races that followed. Both of those surprise failures being in at the top-level.
In the days before his Royal Ascot success, he changed hands from his first owner Yorkshire-man Howard Wilson to Pearl Bloodstock Ltd, being bought on their behalf by David Redvers for a six-figure sum. A big return for originally only costing him £12,000.
I thought straight away after this sale that things could change. The first being the trainer. On the basis the new owners might decide to be associated with a more ‘glamorous’ stable. Even though David Brown thinks the world of the horse and had achieved a record of 1 win and two seconds from the horses first 3 races.
I’m no racing expert and don’t claim to be, but I felt the horse should have been rested after the Group 2 win at Newmarket. 5 races in the first 5 weeks of his racing career, surely his best was still to come next year? As it was, it was decided Group 1 level was next on the agenda after a month break, for the Keeneland Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh. A race that went wrong for a couple of reasons… Jockey Johnny Murtagh managed to get in a bad position from leaving the stalls, getting boxed in with nowhere to go, and when a gap did finally appear the door was firmly shut when the Kevin Manning ridden Parish Hall bumped the horse into the rail.
FREDERICK ENGELS winning at Newmarket
Only two weeks later it was try for a Group 1 win yet again. France bound this time. The better option must have been the Gimcrack at York? Only an hour up the A1 from the trainers base. But that race was only a Group 2.
Frederick Engels finished a place better this time, 5th, but was never in the race. From leaving the stalls, to finishing the race he went the same pace, and never picked up when asked to ‘go’. This was explained after the race as a respiratory infection.
These are just my views, I don’t expect you to agree with me, or even think I’m right. My main point is, I think maybe the horse has been rushed into winning a Group 1 race by the new owners? Now a better revenue option has come along, and for that they didn’t even need to race him.
His departure will be a loss to UK horse racing, and in particular next years big 3 year-old races. The son of Iceman was one of my favourite horses. Let’s hope Frederick Engels gets back to winning ways when he starts racing in Hong Kong.
Article by @MartWes
Windsor Castle Stakes 2011 – Winner: FREDERICK ENGELS Video Here
Lolly For Dolly – Retired
LOLLY FOR DOLLY at Curragh
I
t was four-year-old LOLLY FOR DOLLY‘s last race yesterday, the Coolmore Fusaichi Pegasus Matron Stakes (Group 1) at Leopardstown, which was won by Emulous.
Even though she was still entered in future races this year, including the QIPCO British Champions Day at Ascot in October. She beat Emulous in April in the Big Bad Bob Gladness Stakes (Group 3), but she gained her revenge when they next met in May, aswell as yesterday.
She’s been a horse I’ve followed since March this year after taking a shine to her when watching her race at the Curragh on At The Races, with her distinctive grey and pink colours, where she beat Banimpire, under top weight.
Her biggest win came at Royal Ascot in June this year, when she produced a shock win in the Windsor Forest Stakes (Fillies’ Group 2) at odds of 11/1 (opened at 14/1) with a late surge down the stands rail to win by one and a half lengths. (My only winner that day – blog page here)
Trained by Tommy Stack, a former Grand National winning jockey on Red Rum, she won 5 of her 12 races, 3 of which were this year, plus two 2nd’s, accumulating £185,000 in prize money.
LOLLY FOR DOLLY winning at Royal Ascot
Lolly for Dolly was partnered by jockey Wayne Lordan on all but one of her races, giving him his first ever Royal Ascot win.
Video here
Article by: @MartWes
Sat 3rd Sept – Horse Racing bets
BAREFOOT LADY - pic: Guardian
Something a bit different today… I’ve decided to step away from my usual selections, which are usually less than 4/1, and not choose the obvious.
NAVAJO CHIEF (7/1) Each Way. Won last time out at York, finishing strongly, but is yet to win at this level today. Course and Distance winner and won 2 from 3 under Harry Bentley. (unplaced)
A big sprint race at Group 1 level, yet none of the runners won last time out! BATED BREATH (7/1) price allows for Each Way. Won on both previous Course and distance runs here, as well as a 50% strike rate at the distance overall, 5 from 10. All 5 wins have been at today’s distance, 6f. Most of the build up to this race is about Hoof It (also C+D) and Dream Ahead who is a big danger winning 4 of 5 at 6f, and 2lb less than Bated Breath and Hoof It. Bated Breath trainers form is a concern though, having no winners in the past 14 days from 11 runs, but he does have a 21% strike rate at Haydock. (2nd, by a nose in a photo to Dream Ahead, gets the e/w money)
UNKNOWN REBEL (8/1) Each Way. Won 4 of last 6, and led all the way last time, with Julie Burke staying onboard for today’s race. Stepped up in trip and not raced at this course before, but impressed enough last time, and has won 3 from 4 on today’s ground. (Unplaced, was leading but faded with this longer trip)
All the stats and form say Misty For Me (11/8) will win this. The only stat that doesn’t is that Aidan O’Brien has only won this race once in the last 10 years. A lot of the horses in this race are only at Group 3 level. A horse I follow is Lolly For Dolly, and her biggest win was the Group 2 Windsor Forest at Ascot… I’m going to opt for BAREFOOT LADY though Each Way at 16/1. She usually stays on and was 6th in the 1000 Guineas, 6 places in front of Misty For Me, and finished ahead of Together in their last meeting. Emulous should also be in the top 3, but is only 4/1 so I’ve discounted that as an each way selection. (Just missed out on 3rd! Emulous won – Should of stuck with it…)
HOT ROD MAMMA, (9/4) should make it 5 wins in a row. Finishes fast, 67% win rate at this trip, and by far the best recent form of this field. (WON easy, coming from last to first)
Fri 2nd Sept – Euro Championships
UPDATE: WINNER!
Welcome to the blog. I’ve added a few new minor features to the Sidebar on the right…
Big thank you to the people who view this blog, over 7,000 views in the 4 months since it was created.
A Bet for Friday nights Euro 2012 Championship Qualifiers:
4 fold Accumulator = over 2/1
Bulgaria v. ENGLAND Won 3-0
Cyprus v. PORTUGAL Won 4-0
GERMANY v. Austria Won 6-2
Albania v. FRANCE Won 2-1
WAYNE ROONEY - pic: Guardian
As with any bet nothing is guaranteed, but all 4 should win.
