Weekend Sporting Round-up 25/26 Feb

NACARAT - Pic: Sporting Life

A brief round up of the weekend’s highlights…

Saturday Horse Racing:
The weekend’s big race, the Racing Plus Chase at Kempton, was won by popular 11-year-old grey Nacarat at 9/2.  His impressive 11 lengths win was his second success of this race after winning it in 2009.

Grumeti won again, taking his hurdling record to 3 from 4, and is 5/1 joint fav for the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham with Tom George’s Baby Mix.

Sunday Football & Racing:

THEO WALCOTT - Pic: EPA

Arsenal come from 2 goals down, to beat Tottenham 5-2 in the North London derby.  Spurs were reduced to 10 men towards the end with Scott Parker sent off after a 2nd yellow card.  Arsenal score 5, but Robin Van Persie only gets 1!

In the Sheffield derby at Hillsborough the Owls gain bragging rights in a 1-0 win, halting their 3 successive defeats and United’s 3 successive wins, in what sounded a very uneventful game.

LIVERPOOL - Pic: AP

Liverpool won the Carling Cup, their first trophy for 6 years.  After normal time plus extra time the teams were still level, at 2-2.  So it went to penalties.  And what shockers most of them were, the one finishing nearest to Wembley Tube station being Charlie Adam’s wild effort.  Stevie G’s cousin missed Cardiff’s final penalty and The Reds celebrated a 3-2 win.

Ryan Giggs scored in injury time to earn Manchester United a 2-1 away win at Norwich on his 900th appearance, after the home side thought they had gained a draw when Grant Holt scored 7 minutes from time.

SEABASS - Pic: Sporting Life

Seabass, ridden by Ruby Walsh and trained by his father Ted, won again, to make it 7 on the bounce, and slashing his Grand National odds from 33/1 to 16/1.  Whether he gets the 4 and a 1/2 miles is to be questioned.

John Ferguson’s Asaid returned to winning ways as expected at Towcester, after his impressive 4th last time out in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown.

Point to Point Racing – Blankney / North Carlton

Here are a few photos I took today at Blankey Hunt Point to Point at (North Carlton) Lincoln.

Results
Race 1: Byways Boy
Race 2: Alflora Dora
Race 3: Rocklandslad
Race 4: Shouldhavenownbettr
Race 5: Owenacurra
Race 6: Music of the Morn
Race 7: Hansom Prophet

Lincsracing.co.uk

Sat 25th Feb – Horseracing Kempton and Lingfield

NACARAT - Pic: Daily Mirror

Welcome to my Blog…
Nothing major today, but I’m trying a new format.
If I have any bets today, it will probably be Loyalty.  Below are just my observations.

Big race of the day is the Racing Plus Chase at Kempton…  Last year I backed Nacarat who was 3rd at 5/1.

This year I reckon it’s between him and Planet of Sound.  Both are over 4/1, but I’m leaving them alone in terms of an actual bet.  Nacarat is dropping 2 grades from his last race, which was the King George VI Chase 64 days ago. Nacarat (Won) 9/2

2.50 Lingfield, I think Palace Moon can win again after his easy C+D win earlier this month.  Oasis Dancer is the 6/4 favourite, and this race has only been won by a favourite only once in the past 5 years.

3.20 Lingfield, Another Listed race worth nearly £19,000, same as the 2.50pm.  I’m going to stay loyal, and go with Loyalty for Derek Shaw.  He has won 6 of his 18 all-weather races, aswell as being placed 8 times.  If Loyalty doesn’t win (9/2), I’ll also put forward Tinshu (5/1).

Kempton Tote Quadpot (I’ll try):

• Nacarat
• Grumeti
• Zaynar
• The Reformer

Did You Know:
Paddy Brennan was going to change his name via deed poll for Cheltenham?
Coral approached him to change his name to their founder Joe Coral, so they got the publicity of the name appearing in all the racecards, newspapers etc…
They were then going to place £200 bets on all his rides at the Festival and donate any winnings to Racing Welfare charity…   This was blocked by the BHA!  The minimum Coral were going to donate was £10,000 regardless of any winners for Brennan. #boringbha

Today’s Interesting Stat:
Mark Johnston has trained the winner of the 1.45 Lingfield for the past 3 years!
Today he runs Za’lan.  I’ve just checked the betting and it’s 4/11. #leavealone

All written by @MartWes

Each Ways, Short Price Favourites and Odds Comparison

Pic: Nigel French/Empics

First of all, I’m just an average punter.  I don’t claim to be a know it all when it comes to betting, and I don’t claim to be a pro.  Some days I win, most days I don’t.  And I know there’s a LOT more knowledgeable betting folk out there than me and are able to make a living from it.

These are just my ramblings and I know some will agree, and others will think it’s total rubbish. I know some of it is obvious, and I’m not implying it’s stuff you don’t already know.  Also I’m NOT intending to offend anyone, we all have our own systems and own ways to  do what works for you.  These thoughts are just something I’m going to do myself…

It’s taken me many a year, but I’ve finally realised that I should try Each Way betting more.  Rather than short priced horses all the time.
My normal bets consist of nearly always below 4/1 and win only.  More often than not 2/1 or less, and a lot of favourites.
Very very rarely do I do each ways.

Last weekend I tried something different and tried to pick some each ways at 6/1 or more, aiming for a place, but obviously wanting them to win and thinking they had a chance to do so.
I had a 6/1 2nd and a 12/1 3rd in the same race.
A 7/1 3rd and 16/1 winner, which I actually did to win at 9/1, but best price guarantee ensured I got the price it drifted to.

The race where the 12/1 came third, the favourite was 9/2 and finished unplaced.

Jeer was the 16/1 winner.  And I’m not claiming I did the bet because I believed he would win.  I always bet on him (small just in case) as he’s a horse I follow and always try to watch.
I expected Boa to win at 5/2.  As it was Jeer won fairly easily by half a length, and Boa was third.
The bigger the price the less you need to stake, or if u do stake large the more you win!

Where is the value backing a 6/4 favourite?  My following examples will all be based on £10 stakes and 1/5 odds.
6/4, £10 win = £25 return.
7/1, £5 each way = £52 return for the win.  Or if Placed = £12 return.
12/1, £5 each way = £82 return for the win.  Or if Placed = £17 return.

So obviously the 6/4 will return more than both placed examples, as you are having £10 on win, rather than the £5 win, £5 place.

Some people think that Evens (for example) is a good price and value.  It is, but only if it wins.  And the lower the odds, the more you have to stake to make the return worth having.

Pic: Cavendish

I have done quite a few big bets.  Big to me, but probably not to others, but everyone has their own financial limits and risk levels.  My two biggest ever bets, were both the same stake, and both short priced favourites.  The first was unplaced, and the most recent, which was actually this year won at 11/10.  At the time you are buzzing, but then when you assess the return value against the amount you’ve risked I now think it’s not worth it.

Another example is the 6.50pm at Wolverhampton last Saturday…. won by a 4/6 shot.  Yet there was an 8/1 third.  Where is the value risking your money on such a short price to finish first.  When the 8/1 each way gives you 3 chances/places of winning you some money, and obviously if it does win you win 8 times more than an odds-on will.

But then there’s the risk element of each way betting.  Just because you have the option of two extra places doesn’t mean you will always get your money back or a profit.  And ideally to make it worth while if they only come 2nd or 3rd u need at least 10/1.  As an average the top 4 in most betting markets are 5/1 or less, so you are having to pick something out of the obvious that you think will at least place and also have a chance of winning…  NOT an easy task.

I had another good each way result on Friday at Newbury… Get Me Out of Here, 2nd to Zarkander at 18/1.  So basically a winner at odds of over 4/1, and there were 5 places up for grabs with Bet365…
Zarkander returned the SP favourite at 11/4…  To me one of these was much better value than the other.

Comparison: Short favourites v. big price each ways today at Ffos Las.
There were 8 races on the card, and only 3 were won by the favourites (odds of 5/4, 9/4 and 2/1) in fields of 10, 10 and 14.
All 3 races had a big price placed horse (40/1, 20/1 and 14/1).  Of the other 5 favourites 3 came 2nd all at odds too short for each way, and the other 2 didn’t even place.

Obviously some times, small priced favourites can be classed as value, but it’s all down to individual opinions.   Some days when you see an odds-on fav in a poor race, when surely all they have to do is stand up to win, it can be tempting to pile on.  I’ve been guilty of this in the past, mainly at point to points, but the thing you need to remember is in racing anything can happen.  There’s no guarantees the horse won’t fall or unseat the rider, how do you know the jockey will try, or maybe the ground conditions won’t suit?

Some people can pick the right 6/4, 5/2, 13/8 etc shots that win most days of the week and make a tidy sum doing so, unfortunately I’m not one of those.

Friday just gone there was a lot of opinion that in an evening race at Kempton the jockey made no attempt to win (others views not mine, I never saw the race).  By right people should have been counting their winnings before the race was even over – the horse was fancied that much.  But goes to show that just when you think you’re on to a banker there’s no guarantee.

Favourites…..
Who makes a horse a favourite?  The odds compilers, and usually just based on the horses previous race.  Regardless of whether up in class, distance, unsuitable ground etc…
So a select few people’s opinion determines which horse is the short priced favourite.  Who’s to say their opinion is right?  Plus you need to remember that in say a 10 runner race, where you are trying to pick the winner, mathematically you only have a 10% chance of winning… The odds are greatly in favour of the layers…. They’ve got 9 horses against your one!
Plus most favourites are only favourites because they won their last race… How many horses can string two or three wins together?  VERY FEW.

Hopefully I have made some sense.  I know in my head what I’ve been trying to explain, hopefully it comes across as such.
Thanks for taking time to read.

Lingfield and Kempton Sat 11th Feb.

LINGFIELD

The two I did last night were mainly just because I’ve been on them past couple of runs, and they’re both back at Kempton today, both with different jockeys aswell.

2.30 – Vhujon 4/1 (Dominic Fox) 3rd
5.15 – Rightcar 6/1 (Richard Hughes) 3rd

Plus each way Double.

Then today, using a Totally Different method to my normal one (so will either be an improvement or disaster) I’ve picked:

Lingfield
1.05 – Look At Me Now 7/1 (each way) 3rd
1.40 – Royal Bajan 8/1 (each way) unplaced
2.45 – Palace Moon 7/2 WON
(Seek The Fair Land has good course stats to suggest a place today)

Kempton
3.00 – Fistful of Dollars 6/1 (each way) unplaced

Not advising anyone goes with me on these bets….

Kempton Competition – Wednesday 8th February

KEMPTON - Pic: Anthony Devlin/PA

Update:
The winner who turned his £100 in to £405 is @h103efa
Congratulations on winning the competition. And for 4 out of 5 winners! Which would been an 1071/1 accumulator.

In 2nd place with £340 @PaddockPick,
3rd: @Nichols1979 £150

- – – – – -

#KemptonComp
You have a make belief £100 to use to “bet on 5 selections, all as singles and win only”.

We will use the Starting Prices,
The one who can turn his or her £100 in to the most money will be the winner.

Full Rules/Info available: here

..

Big thank you to everyone who has taken part and for the Retweets.

Entries in Order they were sent:

@GetYourTipsOut
2.20pm DEVEZE £5 win
3.55pm SATWA LAIRD £20 win
4.30pm PALE ORCHID £60 win
5.30pm EVEN BOLDER £10 win
6.00pm AMAZING WIN £5 win

@SportsBettor2
2.20pm WHITE SHIFT £20 win
2.50pm LAZER BLAZER £20 win
5.00pm CATCHY TUNE £20 win
5.30pm EVEN BOLDER £20 win
6.00pm VHUJON £20 win

@Kris1179
3.25pm MAJESTIC ROSE £20 win
4.30pm ADRANIAN £20 win
5.00pm CATCHY TUNE £20 win
5.30pm SHERJAWY £20 win
6.00pm AMAZING WIN £20 win

@The_Rascal_Tips
2.20pm BOBBYOW £10 win
4.30pm PALE ORCHID £35 win
5.00pm LITTLE RED MINX £10 win
5.30pm RIGHTCAR £35 win
6.00pm DVINSKY £10 win

@h103efa
2.20pm WHITE SHIFT £25 win
3.55pm SATWA LAIRD £25 win WON 11/10
4.30pm DISCOVERER £20 win WON 3/1
5.30pm ZIP LOCK £5 win WON 16/1
6.00pm SOLE DANSER £25 win WON 13/2

@WoodwardSamuel
2.20pm BOBBYOW £30 win
3.25pm MAJESTIC ROSE £30 win
4.30pm FAIRWAY TO HEAVEN £20 win
5.30pm DICKIE LE DAVOIR £10 win
6.00pm LASTKINGOFSCOTLAND £10 win

@Daily_Sportbets
2.20pm SILVER LINNET £10 win
2.50pm DELAGOA BAY £20 win
3.55pm APRIL FOOL £20 win
5.30pm SHERJAWY £30 win
6.00pm VHUJON £20 win

@leewakey77
2.20pm WHITE SHIFT £20 win
3.25pm MAJESTIC ROSE £20 win
4.30pm PALE ORCHID £30 win
5.30pm DICKIE LE DAVOIR £15 win
6.00pm MACKS SISTER £15 win

@Mbutch27
2.20pm DEVEZE £20 win
4.30pm ADRANIAN £10 win
5.00pm ASTROSCARLET £20 win
5.30pm EVEN BOLDER £20 win
6.00pm VHUJON £30 win

@legiron43
2.20pm RAIMOND RIDGE £20 win
2.50pm PRICKLES £20 win
4.30pm PALE ORCHID £20 win
5.00pm LITTLE RED MINX £20 win
6.00pm KATMAI RIVER £20 win

@Jordan_dufc
2.20pm DEVEZE £10 win
4.30pm PALE ORCHID £30 win
5.00pm CATCHY TUNE £10 win
5.30pm RIGHTCAR £20 win
6.00pm VHUJON £30 win

@placepotking1
2.20pm DEVEZE £20 win
3.20pm REDAIR £20 win
4.30pm ADRANIAN £20 win
5.30pm BELINSKY £20 win
6.00pm MACKS SISTER £20 win

@westonstevie
3.25pm GIN TWIST £10 win
3.55pm APRIL FOOL £20 win
4.30pm PALE ORCHID £50 win
5.00pm CATCHY TUNE £10 win
5.30pm LASTKINGOFSCOTLAND £10 win

@pigeon_island
2.20pm GREEN WARRIOR £10 win
2.50pm MISS WHIPPY £10 win
3.55pm APRIL FOOL £40 win
5.30pm DINGAAN £20 win
6.00pm DVINSKY £20 win

@Schrise
3.25pm REDAIR £20 win
3.55pm APRIL FOOL £20 win
4.30pm DISCOVERER £20 win
5.00pm SPARTILLA £20 win
6.00pm VHUJON £20 win

@johntomo28
3.25pm MAJESTIC ROSE £20 win
4.30pm ADRANIAN £20 win
5.00pm COTES DU RHONE £20 win
5.30pm EVEN BOLDER £20 win
6.00pm DVINSKY £20 win

@kazrussell2002
2.20pm WHITE SHIFT £10
2.50pm PRICKLES £20
3.25pm LADY CAP £20
5.30pm RIGHTCAR £25
6.00pm KATMAI RIVER £25

@tiptonal
2.30pm WHITE SHIFT £20 win
2.50pm DELAGOA BAY £20 win
3.25pm REDAIR £20 win
5.30pm DICKIE LE DAVOIR £20 win
6.00pm KATMAI RIVER £20 win

@motherwell1
2.50pm IT’S DUBAI DOLLY £10 win
3.25pm MAJESTIC ROSE £30 win
4.30pm ADRANIAN £20 win
5.30pm WHIPPHOUND £30 win
6.00pm AMAZING WIN £10 win

@MrMattKnights
3.25pm ROOKNRASBRYRIPPLE £25 win
3.55pm RUSSIAN ICE £10 win
4.30pm PALE ORCHID £10 win
5.00pm SPARTILLA £25 win
5.30pm RIGHTCAR £30 win

@ModulePaul
2.20pm SILVER LINNET £20 win
3.25pm MAJESTIC ROSE £30 win
4.30pm RIGHT DIVINE £20 win
5.00pm CATCHY TUNE £10 win
6.00pm DVINSKY £20 win

@AnthonyNorrie
2.50pm PRICKLES £20 win
4.30pm DISCOVERER £10 win
5.00pm SPARTILLA £30 win
5.30pm RIGHTCAR £20
6.00pm LASTKINGOFSCOTLAND £20

@kenwholmes
3.25pm ROOKNRASBRYRIPPLE £20 win
4.30pm MR KNIGHTLY £20 win
5.00pm ASTROSCARLET £20 win
5.30pm BELINSKY £20 win
6.00pm MACKS SISTER £20 win

@jocknjude
2.20pm WHITE SHIFT £30 win
2.50pm LAZER BLAZER £5 win
3.25pm REDAIR £5 win
5.30pm RIGHTCAR £30 win
6.00pm KATMAI RIVER £30 win

@LOdd10
2.50pm PRICKLES £20 win
3.25pm LADY CAPRICE £25 win
4.30pm PALE ORCHID £20 win
5.30pm DINGAAN £25 win
6.00pm VHUJON £10 win

@BadgerRacing77
2.20pm PORTHGWIDDEN BEACH £10 win
3.25pm MAJESTIC ROSE £25 win
5.00pm COTES DU RHONE £20 win
5.30pm RIGHTCAR £25
6.00pm BABY DOTTIE £20

@deegs64
2.50pm PRICKLES £15 win
3.25pm LADY CAPRICE £50 win
3.55pm SATWA LAIRD £10 win
4.30pm PALE ORCHID £15 win
6.00pm LASTKINGOFSCOTLAND £10

@A_D_A_M_2010
2.20pm RAIMOND RIDGE £20 win
2.50pm THE CATENIAN £20
3.25pm REDAIR £20 win
5.30pm LES VERGUETTES £20 win
6.00pm DVINSKY £20 win

@Nichols1979
2.20pm WHITE SHIFT £20 win
2.50pm THE CATENIAN £20 win
4.30pm PALE ORCHID £20 win
5.30pm WHIPPHOUND £20 win
6.00pm SOLE DANSER £20 win

@yelros222
2.20pm PORTHGWIDDEN BEACH £20 win
2.50pm THE CATENIAN £20 win
3.55pm APRIL FOOL £20 win
5.00pm CTAPPERS £20 win
6.00pm KATMAI RIVER £20 win

@DaleClark26
2.20pm BOBBYOW £20 win
2.50pm LAZER BLAZER £20 win
4.30pm PALE ORCHID £20 win
5.00pm ASTROSCARELT £20 win
5.30pm SHERJAWY £20 win

@pauljwatson72
2.20 SILVER LINNET £10 win
2.50pm LAZER BLAZER £10 win
5.00pm SPARTILLA £10 win
5.30pm RIGHTCAT £40 win
6.00pm VHUJON £30 win

@PaddockPick
2.50pm BRENT PELHAM £20 win
3.25pm MAJESTIC ROSE £10 Win
4.30pm RIGHT DIVINE £40 win
5.30pm ZIP LOCK £20 win
6.00pm BABY DOTTIE £10 win

@placemaster
2.30pm GOOD TIMIN £10 win
3.25pm LADY CAPRICE £30 win
4.30pm FAIRWAY TO HEAVEN £10 win
5.00pm SPARTILLA £30 win
5.30pm BELINSKY £20 win

@Garnsey82
2.50pm THE CATENIAN £10 win
3.25pm LADY CAPRICE £30 win
4.30pm PALE ORCHID £30 win
5.00pm SPARTILLA £20 win
5.30pm LES VERGUETTES £10 win

G_Stapleton
2.20pm RAIMOND RIDGE £10 win
3.25pm MAJESTIC ROSE £20 win
4.30pm FAIRWAY TO HEAVEN £40 win
5.30pm SHERJAWY £10 win
6.00pm DVINSKY £20 win

@PTMahon
2.20pm WHITE SHIFT £10 win
2.50pm IT’S DUBAI DOLLY £10 win
3.25pm LADY CAPRICE £10 win
5.30pm SHERJAWY £50 win
6.00pm VHUJON £20 win

@TheDailyPunter
2.20pm WHITE SHIFT £10 win
2.50pm PRICKLES £20 win
3.25pm LADY CAPRICE £20 win
4.30pm PALE ORCHID £30 win
5.30pm DINGAAN £20 win

@mulldog
2.20pm BOBBYOW £20 win
2.50pm IT’S ONLY DUBAI £20 win
3.25pm REDAIR £20 win
5.30pm BELINSKY £20 win
6.00pm VHUJON £20 win

@kevyorkshire
2.50pm FORBIDDEN £10 win
3.25pm LADY CAPRICE £40 win
5.00pm SPARTILLA £10 win
5.30pm DINGAAN £20 win
6.00pm VHUJON £20 win

@saintmark007
2.20pm DEVEZE £20 win
2.50pm PRICKLES £20 win
3.25pm LADY CAPRICE £20 win
4.30pm PALE ORCHID £20 win
6.00pm RIFLESSIONE £20 win

@MartWes
2.20pm RAIMOND RIDGE £15
2.50pm PRICKLES £15
3.25pm LADY CAPRICE £20
5.00pm SPARTILLA £20
6.00pm VHUJON £30

42 people Entered. I shall update later with Results and Winner.

Punchestown Sunday 5th February 2012

I don’t claim to know much about Irish Jumps Racing, but I’ve had a look and come up with these, stronger pick being the first listed per race.

Not advising you take any notice, but it’s the only horse racing today, so thought I’d see if I could do any good.

1.50pm – Simenon 11/4 (2nd) and Joxer 7/2 (4th)

2.20pm – Turner Brown 14/1 each way (unplaced) and Our Monty 5/1 (fell)

2.55pm – Big Zeb 4/5 (2nd)

3.25pm – Inoma James 16/1 each way (unplaced)

3.55pm – Garde Champetre 11/4 (2nd)

BIG ZEB & SIZING EUROPE - pic: Irish Racing

Southwell (All Weather) 41 Photos – Thurs 2nd Feb 2012 / Classy Lass

Here are my photos from today’s (Thursday) horse racing at Southwell.

In Racecard order: (Click photo’s to see full size)

Shawkantango

Shawkantango

Shawkantango

Shawkantango

Shawkantango & No Mean Trick

Shawkantango

SKT - Very tight 'Official photo finish'

Shawkantango 2nd place

Hayley Turner

Mediterranean Sea

Mediterranean Sea

Classy Lass

Classy Lass

Classy Lass

Classy Lass

Classy Lass

Classy Lass

Classy Lass

Classy Lass & Dominic Fox

Classy Lass finishes 5th

Classy Lass

Classy Lass

Roedean

Roedean

Henry Bee

Henry Bee

Henry Bee

Henry Bee

Henry Bee

Henry Bee

Kickingthelilly

Derek Thompson interviews Leonna Mayor

Pipers Piping

Symphonic Dancer

Twice Red

Shaws Diamond

Shaws Diamond & Derek Shaw

Shaws Diamond Shareholders

Shaws Diamond

Shaws Diamond

Shaws Diamond