My picks for Monday’s racing. I’ve done them in various multiples, but have also done a couple of singles aswell. Hopefully more winners than Saturday… none. If these are unsuccessful too, I’ll have a few days off sharing my bets. If you do these yourself on my say so, bet at own risk, thanks.
2.50 – Cruise Tothelimit 12/1
3.50 – Starwatch 33/1
4.50 – Mountain Range 20/1
5.20 – Boston Blue 7/1
3.40 – Fazza 20/1
5.10 – Miss Blink 15/2
4.00 – Gran Maestro 9/1
4.30 – West End Lad 11/2
Prices are Bet365 & Paddy Power
My Bets for Saturday, only small stakes. Bet at your own risk if you do these too.
2.20 – Highland Knight 3/1
2.55 - Franciscan 9/1
3.30 – Staying loyal to these 2: if the ground is Soft: Thunderball 18/1, Good: Spinatrix 14/1
4.05 – Albaqaa 4/1, Duke of Clarence 8/1
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A photo of Wednesday’s 40/1 winner MAYFIELD GIRL, my biggest ever.
Photo copyright SD Photos:
NOTTINGHAM – Long Shots
As you can see from the prices, the Bookies don’t think any of these will win. I won’t go through the reasons why, but I think they have slim chances of placing, and you never know, one of them might spring a surprise.
2.40 – Mayfield Girl 25/1
3.10 – Silvanus 33/1
3.40 – The Bull Hayes 33/1
4.10 – Weapon of Choice 14/1
4.40 – Mister Marcasite 16/1
Photos courtesy ZOO magazine. click for full size image.
My 3 Bets for the Grand National, previously shared on Twitter:
Seabass 9/1 (won 6 of last 8 Chase races, 3rd in this race last year).
Teaforthree 14/1 (2nd in Welsh National & previously won at 4 miles).
Lost Glory 66/1 (won 3 of 5 Chase races at or further than 3 miles, won 5 of 9 Chases in total).
6 Places e/w with BetVictor
Here are the Twitter usernames and in RT order.
1. Imperial Commander – @Dogfox2109
2. What A Friend – @Crateking
3. Weird Al – @gmunro762
4. Quel Esprit – @jk_mcd
5. Big Fella Thanks – @rlongshaw
6. Seabass – @markushindley
7. Roberto Goldback – @mattjcollins16
8. Sunnyhillboy – @deegs64
9. Ballabriggs – @RogerSmith0909
10. Teaforthree – @buster_bookie
11. Across The Bay – @bigsans
12. Join Together – @dayhorsetipping
13. Colbert Station – @richardmerritt3
14. Forpadydeplasterer – @TonyTheTyke
15. On His Own – @Granty_100
16. Joncol – @papafleming
17. Balthazar King – @milkyrules
18. Cappa Bleu – @tallderbyguy
19. Oscar Time – @tellsbells1
20. Always Waining – @diamondx1982
21. Tatenen – @rob_1878
22. Treacle – @PKKilmessan
23. Lost Glory – @Andy_Capper
24. Swing Bill – @elTav
25. Saint Are – @GaryAkko17
26. Chicago Grey – @Zuludemon
27. Quiscover Fontaine – @Rod_Jones
28. Rare Bob – @Mackem316
29. The Rainbow Hunter – @doublerup
30. Becauseicouldntsee – @paulsmithie07
31. Harry The Viking – @89trev
32. Mr Moonshine – @Kevin98649516
33. Mumbles Head – @lisamurray149
34. Ninetieth Minute – @Billy_WHUFC
35. Auroras Encore – @JackieRenwick1
36. Tarquinius – @Theknibbler
37. Any Currency – @BD2Owl
38. Major Malarkey – @SmokeyFormby
39. Soll – @VernonSmith1990
40. Viking Blond – @MarkLomas3
These are just my bets/picks, which I share hoping they’re decent. If you do any of these on my say so, bet entirely at your own risk, thanks for looking.
Doncaster 3.05 The William Hill Lincoln Handicap
Swiftly Done 25/1
Has had 22 races, finished in the first 3 11 times, winning 1 of 3 Class 2 races. Won 4 of last 8 races at a mile. Big price but at 4 places each way I’m having a go. Has won on Soft aswell. Jockey is a 7lb claimer I’ve never heard of though, so is risky.
Chapter Seven 11/1
Is a C&D winner on Soft ground. Only had 2 starts on Soft, won both, the other being at York. Graham Lee rides.
These are the 2 I was initially on last week before the meeting was cancelled, and I’m on again today. Luckly they are still roughly the same prices.
BIG PRICES: I haven’t bet on these two (hope that’s not a mistake), but I think they’re worth a mention: Majestic Myles 40/1, Chosen Character 28/1.
A superb record of 3 wins from 3 races at 6 furlongs on Soft ground.
Very consistent. Form on Soft: 1322. 27% win and 93% place at 6 furlongs. Again another unknown 7lb claimer onboard.
The Lockmaster 10/1
This is a horse I keep an eye on. Never seems to run a bad race, although just lately hasn’t produced the goods on the all weather since winning at Southwell. Trainer Michael Appleby has confirmed my thoughts to why this is. Today could be a different matter. Won 2 of last 3 10 furlong races, all on turf. Has won here before.
Kempton Each Way Lucky 15
2.20 Robin Hoods Bay 2/1
2.55 Buckland 7/1
4.05 Spirit of Sharjah 25/1
4.35 Seek The Fair Land 16/1
Warning: I know virtually nothing about Dubai Racing
But Meydan Each Way Lucky 15
1.10 Moonwalk In Paris 9/1
2.25 Shuruq 8/1
3.45 Krypton Factor 9/1
4.40 Sajjhaa 7/1
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Decent day today at Southwell, put two horses on Twitter, one won, 20/1 sp Calculating.
No big prices there for Wednesday, well not to me anyway. I’ve picked the horses as per normal and then as always price up after. Prices are Bet365 and might be slightly out of date now time I’ve done this blog, but are genuine.
I’ll write a very brief line for each, to give you a part of the reason I’ve chosen them.
If either of the 3.10, 3.45, 4.20 or 4.55 are to get beat, here’s what I think by, so Reverse Forecast:
3.10 Caldercruix / Kung Hei Fat Choy
3.45 Sewn Up / Hannah’s Turn
4.20 Rio Cobolo / Elusive Hawk
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Not much time to do this Blog…
PLEASE NOTE this is just for reference, rather than to actually tell you what to Back or Lay.
Edit: Just as I’m completing this page Channel 4 Racing report GOING CHANGE!!! Now Soft, Good to Soft in places!
My Tent Or Yours -
6 of last 8 winners priced over 10/1.
Only 5 of 15 horses in last years Festival 3/1 or less won.
Henderson hasn’t won this race for 21 years.
Sire Milan is 0 from 7 runners at the Festival.
Not raced for over 52 days (75).
Dodging Bullets -
Also not raced for over 52 days.
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Soft Ground winners over Hurdles: Champagne Fever / Jezki / My Tent Or Yours / Puffin Billy.
Cause of Causes won 3 of last 5 races, Sire Dynaformer currently operating at around 40%.
Trend against Overturn – too old.
Oppose the favourite, but pick a horse less that 10/1.
Jonjo O’Neill does well in Chases.
Horse than finished in first 3 last time out.
Aged 7 – 10.
Knockara Beau won 3 of 6 Soft ground Chase races.
Pete The Feat won 2 of 2 Chases at today’s Distance.
The only horse to win a Chase at this Distance on Soft ground: Summery Justice.
No horse regained this since 1975. (Rock On Ruby, Hurricane Fly, Binocular)
Not raced for over 51 Days: Cinders And Ashes, Grandouet.
Khyber Kim too old (11).
Rock On Ruby – wears headgear.
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Won Hurdles races on Soft Ground: Khyber Kim, Binocular & Hurricane Fly. All won at today’s Distance aswell on Soft.
Rock On Ruby in 10 Hurdles races never finished worse than 3rd.
Zarkandar won 7 of 9 hurdles races, and 2 of 3 at Cheltenham.
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OTHER STATS and TRENDS:
Sires: Oscar: Rock On Ruby, Oscar Whisky, At Fishers Cross. King’s Theatre: The New One, African Gold.
Oppose Hurders from these Stables: P.Hobbs, N.T-Davies, A.King.
When looking for winners, oppose horses with Headgear (excluding tongue ties).
Most profitable race for Irish trained runners: County Hurdle (Friday), and won 5 of last 6 runnings.
Avoid David Pipe runners in non-handicap hurdles.
Charlie Longsdon only had 1 ever Cheltenham winner, from 54.
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3.05 – Dickie Le Davour. Not a prolific winner, but form here over 6f in last 4 races: 1231.
4.25 - Shawkantango. This is one I follow, and without even looking I know he does well here. Form over today’s distance at Class 6: 112.
5.05 – Negative against Dewala. Won last 3 races here, but not won here at today’s distance in 2 attempts.
A very foggy day with extremely poor visability. I’m not overly happy with a lot of these photos due to that, as I’ve had to adjust them in Photoshop to try and get rid of the fog.
Click Photos to see the whole image, and full size. Hover over Photo for Caption.
Please note these are just Pointers (ie Stats). With the focus being on horses proven on the fibresand. As we all know stats are what’s happened in the past, so as much as I’d like to see this page provide plenty of decent priced winners, what happens on the day is an unknown.
2.10 Tenancy 16/1, Bonnie Prince Blue 10/1
The only Course & Distance winners. Tenancy on the same OR as his last C&D win, and BPB 2lb below.
2.40 Sleepy Blue Ocean 6/1, MJ Woodward 8/1
Both C&D winners and at today’s Class 5.
3.40 Calculating 16/1, Mediterranean Sea 5/2
Both C&D winners, and Course Class 5 winners. Probert rides Calculating rather than usual jockey.
4.10 Maslak 10/1
C&D form: 131621321
4.40 Dubai Hills 9/2, The Lock Master 7/1
Dubai won last 4 races at the Course, not at this distance though. The Lock Master is reunited with Shirley Teasdale (she won on him here previously), horses C&D form: 22211. 3lb above highest winning OR.
5.10 Greenhead High 6/1
Won 2 of last 3 C&D races at Class 6.
Also an observation I put on Twitter earlier: Legal Eagle 20/1 now into 10/1. Paul Mulrennan rides. His only booked ride, let alone his only ride here. Also his first ride this 2012/13 AW Season…
Note these are just Stats, NOT tips. all prices Bet365 at 8pm.
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£5 FREE credit if you order your sim via the advert when you activate. They also have other deals if 250 mins isn’t enough.