Fri 12th Oct – York & Bath HorsePointers

York Racecourse

A very good Thursday at Ayr, 5 winners from 7 races (none favourites). Drew a blank at Worcester though, no winners from 4 races.

Unwritten rule:
When it’s wet – don’t bet!!! Be aware that the rain throws up some strange results.

York is currently described as Good to Soft, and with more rain expected over night I’m focusing on Good to Soft and allowing for even softer by tomorrow afternoon.

York

2.00pm
Bachoteque 5/1. (Unplaced) A Class 2 race, and only 1 of the 17 runners has won on a anything softer than Good at this Class. If you drop to Class 3, again there’s only 1 horse fitting this criteria… Bachoteque and it was at today’s Distance.  Won his last 2 races (heavy & soft).

3.05pm
Osteopathic Remedy 11/1. (Unplaced) Won his last two Class 2 races at the Distance (on Good to Soft & Heavy.

No Poppy 11/1. (Won) Good to Soft form this season at today’s Distance 231, Class 3 mainly though, so up a Class today.  Has raced 3 times on Soft, won all 3.

Bath

1.30pm
Little Rocky 3/1. (Won) Only had 1 try at today’s Class (2), finished 2nd on Soft.  Other form this year is 341, the win coming on Soft at today’s Distance (Class 3).  One of only 2 horses in the race to win on Soft this year.  The other is one that’s won twice for us, but not at this sort of Class.

2.40pm
Gladiatrix 2/1. (Won) She’s won her last 3 races, 2 of them here.  Latest win was on Monday by 4 lengths which was the first time trying 5f.  First attempt up to  Class 4 though.

Ginzan 8/1.  (Unplaced) A recent C&D winner (at the Class & Distance, on G-S).  Form this season at 5f: 441161.  Hasn’t won on Soft though.

Please DON’T have big bets just on my say so.  A good day today yes, but tomorrow’s another day. Best regards.

Kempton / Market Rasen Sunday 22nd January

A few for today, would love to have another Sunday like last week at Kempton.
Mainly short price favourites, but I picked them on form and stats, then checked prices after.

Kempton -

2.50 – Nibani 4/1 (unplaced)

3.25 – Shauna’s Spirit 9/4 (unplaced)

3.55 – Fire in Babylon 9/4 (2nd)

4.25 – Hazzard County 15/8

4.55 – Vhujon 5/1 (each way)

I looked at Bold Ring in the 2.20, as I was on last time when 2nd by a neck at 10/1.  Beaten by Fedora, they are up against each other again today, but Fedora is 3lb lighter, and has won 2 of her last 3 times at Kempton.
Fedora is 9/1 today, Bold Ring 10/1,  Could prove to be each way value – slight preference due to weight on: Fedora.

Bottom weight Mataajir could be interesting in the 2.50.  I’ve backed him last 3 times, and he’s won twice and 2nd once.  Up in distance and class again today though, but in all his recent races he’s finished strongly and found an extra gear.  The weight advantage against Nibani is big and could be a massive advantage, but it’s basically into the unknown, and 3/1 second fav seems short to me.  I would like to see him win though for trainer Derek Shaw.

Market Rasen -

2.30 – Book Em Danno 12/1 (risky each way) (unplaced)
Reasons have been outlined on my Twitter earlier.

These are just my views.  Doesn’t mean I’m right.  If you take any notice hopefully they gain you a profit.
Thanks for looking

Prices were last night with Bet365 (best odds guarantee)

Boxing Day Bets. Horse Racing and Football

KAUTO STAR & LONG RUN - pic: Tom Jenkins

Welcome to my Blog.
I’ve spent a lot of time going through the cards for Boxing Day… it will either be a complete waste of time, or it will pay off.

The Kempton card was by far the hardest in my opinion.  The 3 races I’m focusing on are 2 horse races to me.  And it’s a case of go with the form book/stats in general and hope the selections show improvement, or go with gut feeling based on recent races.

MY STATS (Relevant to Boxing Day Racing):

• Rock on Ruby has only been out of the top 3 places once in 9 races, and has a 100% win rate going right-handed (one race).
• Binocular is 2 from 3 at Kempton, and has won 7 of his 14 Group 1 races.
• Overturn has a 73% place rate at 2m.
• Grand Crus is 3 from 4 at 3 miles.
• Kauto Star has  a 100% win rate when racing in December ( 7 races).
• Out of the King George field only Long Run and Sommersby have finished all their career races.
• Long Run has never won, when in a field of 8.  But has won on both of his starts at Kempton.
• Long Run has never finished worse than 3rd in all of his 19 races.
• Bobs Worth is 2 from 3 at Kempton.
• Bobs Worth and Grand Crus are yet to win when in a field of 6.
• Emmas Legend has won last 4 races when going right-handed.
• Barry Geraghty and Nicky Henderson best Kempton NH jockey and trainer in last 5 years (36% and 31%).

KEMPTON
2.00 (Feltham Novices Chase)
Should be a duel between Grand Crus and Bobs Worth.  I’m opting for the Henderson horse, who has beat Cue Card and Rock on Ruby this year and has won 6 races on the spin. (11/4 William Hill) (3rd)

2.35 (Christmas Hurdle) (Binocular Won)
Another two horse race.  It could be 3, but Overturn has had a lot of hard races in a short space of time, and has to improve yet again to take this away from Binocular and Rock on Ruby.  I think it could turn into a Nicky Henderson day, and I’m going against the popular Rock on Ruby, who although being on the upturn to me hasn’t really beat anything (yet).  Binocular hasn’t been his usual self since Sandown earlier this year, but he is making progress having finished 2nd last time out, and 3rd the race before.  He has the best course form and I’m going to take a chance (a risky chance) on him to make it back to back Christmas Hurdles. (2/1 William Hill & Boyle Sports)

3.10 (King George VI Chase)
The big one!  Kauto Star versus Long Run.  Heart versus head.  This is a race I’ve been debating whether to avoid, and just make it a no bet race, and cheer on the one I want to win.  But where’s the fun in that?  As much as I like Captain Chris and Master Minded, they are both going into the unknown, so I’m discounting them.  Kauto Star was back to his best last month when beating Long Run in the Betfair Chase at Haydock, and beat him well.  Impressive jumping from the soon to be 12-year-old, where as Henderson’s Long Run was very poor at jumping and looked to be struggling to me.  As much as I admire Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh, I’m going for Long Run and I can’t give you a definitive reason why.  I’m not fond of the horse, I don’t like the silks and have never taken to the Waley-Cohen’s.  Kauto is much better value at 3/1, and I would much prefer him to win.  But the name of the game is trying to pick what WILL win, rather than what you would LIKE to win. (11/8 at most bookies) (2nd)

2.05 FONTWELL
Run To Fly
Going for the five-timer.  Should be the pick of the bunch. (11/8 available) (unplaced)

12.20 TOWCESTER
Speed Master to win / Monkey Milan each way (Speed Master won 4/5)
At first glance Speed Master is the only horse in this race, and will probably be odds-on.  But I reckon Monkey Milan could place.  He’s the only course winner, has a 100% win record going right-handed.  Both Speed Master and Monkey Milan are the only distance winners. (1/2 and 5/1 Paddy Power)

1.45 WETHERBY
The North’s big race of the day.  Always Right impressed me last time out, when leading all the way and finding more when pushed hard by 2nd place Skippers Brig.  Won 4 of his last 6 races.  (4/1 available, but price going in) (unplaced)

- – - – - – - -

FOOTBALL
Up until the past two Saturday’s, I had been on a roll with my Football bets.
7 wins from 10 bets.  Past two weeks however have been unsuccessful.
These should all win, but being a Five-timer is risky:

Man Utd to beat Blackburn (31st Dec)
Sheff Utd to beat Notts County (27th Dec)
Crawley to beat Gillingham
Huddersfield to beat Chesterfield
Man City to beat West Brom
Pays = Over 5/1 at Paddy Power

Tues/Wed Treble (also risky)
West Ham to beat Birmingham
Tottenham to beat Norwich
Celtic to beat Rangers
Pays = 9/1 at Paddy Power

Please note:  These are the bets I either have done or will be doing when prices available.
I’m not advising you do them also, but if you do I wish you all the best, and hope they win even more.  There are risks attached to all the above, there’s nothing I would advise strongly today.  Never bet more than you can afford to lose etc….

Thanks for looking/reading.

#XmasComp Entries for Boxing Day – Wetherby and Kempton

LONG RUN & KAUTO STAR - pic: Tom Jenkins

Update: Only 1 person managed Two Winners, so I’m awarding him the winner.  Well done to: @Con_027

Here are the entries for #XmasComp in order they were sent to me…

Thanks to everyone who took the time to enter, 50 people.

Boxing Day, 26th December 2011 – The races we are focusing are:

1.45 Wetherby – Betfair Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase
2.35 Kempton – Williamhill.com Christmas Hurdle
3.10 Kempton – William Hill King George VI Chase

All 3 Races are live on Channel 4 Racing.

@Simoncruddace
1.45 Wetherby Knockara Bleau, 2.35 Kempton Binocular, 3.10 Kempton Long Run

@saintmark007
1.45 Wetherby Always Right, 2.35 Kempton Rock on Ruby, 3.10 Kempton Long Run

@Con_027
1.45 Wetherby Wayward Prince, 2.35 Kempton Binocular, 3.10 Kempton Kauto Star

@matt240475
1.45 Wetherby Always Right, 2.35 Kempton Rock on Ruby, 3.10 Kempton Long Run

@keejayOV
1.45 Wetherby Always Right, 2.35 Kempton Binocular, 3.10 Kempton Captain Chris

@mulldog
1.45 Wetherby Midnight Chase, 2.35 Kempton Rock on Ruby, 3.10 Kempton Somersby

@ronald0151
1.45 Wetherby Always Right, 2.35 Kempton Rock on Ruby, 3.10 Kempton Kauto Star

@RichSpurs1882
1.45 Wetherby Midnight Chase, 2.35 Kempton Overturn, 3.10 Kempton Master Minded

@Squirmm
1.45 Wetherby Midnight Chase, 2.35 Kempton Rock on Ruby, 3.10 Kempton Kauto Star

@JamSohnson
1.45 Wetherby Sarando, 2.35 Kempton Rock on Ruby, 3.10 Kempton Long Run

@sambrookjames
1.45 Wetherby Always Right, 2.35 Kempton Overturn, 3.10 Kempton Kauto Star

@jamesshimmens
1.45 Wetherby Knockara Beau, 2.35 Kempton Binocular, 3.10 Kempton Long Run

@Lloydy36
1.45 Wetherby Halley, 2.35 Kempton Rock on Ruby, 3.10 Kempton Kauto Star

@simonlester1
1.45 Wetherby Neptune Equester, 2.35 Kempton Rock on Ruby, 3.10 Kempton Long Run

@TheGambolar
1.45 Wetherby Midnight Chase, 2.35 Kempton Binocular, 3.10 Kempton Captain Chris

@ThaiRobert
1.45 Wetherby Always Right, 2.35 Kempton Rock on Ruby, 3.10 Kempton Long Run

@vesty69
1.45 Wetherby The Hollinwell, 2.35 Kempton Binocular, 3.10 Kempton Somersby

@chaskynyrd
1.45 Wetherby Knockara Beau, 2.35 Kempton Overturn, 3.10 Kempton Master Minded

@rhodge87
1.45 Wetherby Midnight Chase, 2.35 Kempton Overturn, 3.10 Kempton Long Run

@nickybrowny35
1.45 Wetherby Always Right, 2.35 Kempton Overturn, 3.10 Kempton Kauto Star

@mjr8591
1.45 Wetherby Knockara Beau, 2.35 Kempton Rock on Ruby, 3.10 Kempton Long Run

@RandomGeordie
1.45 Wetherby Neptune Equester, 2.35 Kempton Overturn, 3.10 Kempton Master Minded

@pauljwatson72
1.45 Wetherby Lackamon, 2.35 Kempton Rock on Ruby, 3.10 Kempton Kauto Star

@tamsin1
1.45 Wetherby Wayward Prince, 2.35 Kempton Rock on Ruby, 3.10 Kempton Kauto Star

@Banger40
1.45 Wetherby Midnight Chase, 2.35 Kempton Rock on Ruby, 3.10 Kempton Kauto Star

@SteveMcGuire4
1.45 Wetherby The Hollinwell, 2.35 Kempton Binocular, 3.10 Kempton Master Minded

@formbet
1.45 Wetherby Halley, 2.35 Kempton Overturn, 3.10 Kempton Master Minded

@kklindemans
1.45 Wetherby Wayward Prince, 2.35 Kempton Binocular, 3.10 Kempton Somersby

@Crateking
1.45 Wetherby Wayward Prince, 2.35 Kempton Binocular, 3.10 Kempton Long Run

@Nathaldo
1.45 Wetherby Lackamon, 2.35 Kempton Rock on Ruby, 3.10 Kempton Long Run

@TheGolfBandit
1.45 Wetherby Halley, 2.35 Kempton Rock on Ruby, 3.10 Kempton Kauto Star

@The__Rascal_Tips
1.45 Wetherby Sarando, 2.35 Kempton Rock on Ruby, 3.10 Kempton Captain Chris

@SportsBettor2
1.45 Wetherby Always Right, 2.35 Kempton Rock on Ruby, 3.10 Kempton Long Run

@Calummadell
1.45 Wetherby Halley, 2.35 Kempton Overturn, 3.10 Kempton Long Run

@jocknjude
1.45 Wetherby Knockara Beau, 2.35 Kempton Binocular, 3.10 Kempton Long Run

@papafleming
1.45 Wetherby Wayward Prince, 2.35 Kempton Rock on Ruby, 3.10 Kempton Long Run

@Jordan_dufc
1.45 Wetherby Midnight Chase, 2.35 Kempton Binocular, 3.10 Kempton Long Run

@fconwy
1.45 Wetherby Wayward Prince, 2.35 Kempton Rock on Ruby, 3.10 Kempton Master Minded

@legiron43
1.45 Wetherby Neptune Equester, 2.35 Kempton Rock on Ruby, 3.10 Kempton Long Run

@LittleLeics_gal
1.45 Wetherby The Hollinwell, 2.35 Kempton Overturn, 3.10 Kempton Kauto Star

@Chalkbeater
1.45 Wetherby Knockara Beau, 2.35 Kempton Sanctuaire, 3.10 Kempton Somersby

@MichaelDiPaola
1.45 Wetherby Wayward Prince, 2.35 Kempton Binocular, 3.10 Kempton Master Minded

@clarkey_1
1.45 Wetherby Always Right, 2.35 Kempton Rock on Ruby, 3.10 Kempton Master Minded

@pigeon_island
1.45 Wetherby Always Right, 2.35 Kempton Rock on Ruby, 3.10 Kempton Long Run

@LarryNosetab
1.45 Wetherby Wayward Prince, 2.35 Kempton Clerks Choice, 3.10 Kempton Master Minded

@johntomo28
1.45 Wetherby Always Right, 2.35 Kempton Overturn, 3.10 Kempton Long Run

@NorthRacingClub
1.45 Wetherby Wayward Prince, 2.35 Kempton Binocular, 3.10 Kempton Captain Chris

@glennphil2010
1.45 Wetherby Knockara Bleau, 2.35 Kempton Rock on Ruby, 3.10 Kempton Kauto Star

@Cheltnut
1.45 Wetherby Always Right, 2.35 Kempton Overturn, 3.10 Kempton Master Minded

@Teachric
1.45 Wetherby Knockara Beau, 2.35 Kempton Clerks Choice, 3.10 Kempton Sommersby.

BINOCULAR and LONG RUN

..
I will update with the Results and Winner by Boxing Day night at the latest.

If more than 1 Winner,
the Tie-break will be:
Pick the winner of the
3.10pm Kempton Tues 27th Dec

Full Competition info here

Wed 14th Dec – Horse Racing

ERICHT - pic: SkySports

For probably the first time ever, a blog update on a Wednesday.
Hoping for a much better day than Saturday.

Time For Rupert is out again, and hopefully with a change of jockey, and a poor race he can finally get back to winning ways.   If not I will finally give up on him.  He’s cost me a fortune, and at odds of 8/13 I’ll never get it all back.

Magnifique Etoile was very impressive last time out winning by 13 lengths at Stratford at the end of October.  Which was the day I picked 4 out of the 7 winners on that card. Odds against today, and I’m hoping for back to back wins.  Kielan Woods takes off 5lb.

I’m going to oppose Montbazon who didn’t impress at Cheltenham, and is another that lost me money.  Today I’m siding with Erict for Henderson/Geraghty, who is a course winner (in a bumper).

Selections:
1.25 Newbury – Ericht 6/5 (3rd)
2.35 Newbury – Time For Rupert 8/13 (Won)
1.45 Bangor – Magnifique Etoile 5/4 (Won)

Thanks for looking.
Prices: Paddy Power this morning.

Sat 10th Dec Horse Racing & Football Bets

MOSSLEY - pic: Espn

Thanks for looking at my Blog.  Quite a few bets today, as other than when I went to Huntingdon on Thursday, I haven’t had a bet since Sunday.

A good day on here last Saturday, two football trebles, the higher price one won, and 2 out of three on the other.  Today’s treble is the same as last weeks, in that nothing stood out massive at me, so I’ve picked what I feel are 3 good possibles, but by no means certain.

Really hoping I can keep up the good run of form on the football.  Which stands at 7 out of 10 successful Trebles.

Football Treble - 5/1
MK Dons to beat Oldham (Won)
Sheff Utd to beat Rochdale (Won)
Charlton to beat Walsall (Drew)

HORSERACING: I’ve left alone all the obvious ones/odds-on shots, and tried to pick decent value.

Cheltenham
12.45pm Mossley 9/4 (2nd)
2.30pm Medermit each way 10/1 (2nd)
3.05pm (International Hurdle) Menorah 10/3 (unplaced)

Southwell
1.15pm McConnell 11/8 (unplaced)
2.55pm Stanley Rigby 10/3 (unplaced)

Wolverhampton
8.20pm Loyalty 4/1 (2nd)

Doncaster
2.45pm Kie 7/2 (3rd)