My Bets for Saturday, only small stakes. Bet at your own risk if you do these too.
2.20 – Highland Knight 3/1
2.55 - Franciscan 9/1
3.30 – Staying loyal to these 2: if the ground is Soft: Thunderball 18/1, Good: Spinatrix 14/1
4.05 – Albaqaa 4/1, Duke of Clarence 8/1
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A photo of Wednesday’s 40/1 winner MAYFIELD GIRL, my biggest ever.
Photo copyright SD Photos:
NOTTINGHAM – Long Shots
As you can see from the prices, the Bookies don’t think any of these will win. I won’t go through the reasons why, but I think they have slim chances of placing, and you never know, one of them might spring a surprise.
2.40 – Mayfield Girl 25/1
3.10 – Silvanus 33/1
3.40 – The Bull Hayes 33/1
4.10 – Weapon of Choice 14/1
4.40 – Mister Marcasite 16/1
Decent day today at Southwell, put two horses on Twitter, one won, 20/1 sp Calculating.
No big prices there for Wednesday, well not to me anyway. I’ve picked the horses as per normal and then as always price up after. Prices are Bet365 and might be slightly out of date now time I’ve done this blog, but are genuine.
I’ll write a very brief line for each, to give you a part of the reason I’ve chosen them.
If either of the 3.10, 3.45, 4.20 or 4.55 are to get beat, here’s what I think by, so Reverse Forecast:
3.10 Caldercruix / Kung Hei Fat Choy
3.45 Sewn Up / Hannah’s Turn
4.20 Rio Cobolo / Elusive Hawk
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My picks for Monday’s Racing…
2.00 Madame Lillibet 5/2
2.30 Charlie’s Vic 1/3
3.40 Markadam 11/2, McMurrough 12/1
4.40 Imjoeking 5/4
1.50 Midnight Macarena 6/4
2.50 Wychwoods Brook 6/5
3.15 Bussa 11/4
4.20 Red Somerset 11/8
5.25 Scamperdale 12/1
5.55 Sewn Up 13/2
^ 8.10am: all races priced up now… The two short odds ones were picked last night, prior to being priced up this morning. 5/4 was the shortest price.
All 3 are currently out of form, so are risky.
I’ve mentioned them purely for their record at Southwell.
Ace Of Spies 4/1.
Stanley Rigby 9/2.
Ace Of Spies: the only C&D winner. Hayley is 1-1 on the horse here.
Bandstand: won both previous races here, on winning mark.
Stanley Rigby: won 5-7 races here, 1 from 2 at today’s distance.
Please note Tuesday will be the first days racing on this new surface, so I’m guessing it will ride slow, hence could throw up strange results.
Also there will be plenty of horses trying the fibresand for the first time.
I’ve done a small Trixie e/way.
The Treble is 301/1, but most of my trebles only get 2 winners!
If you use these on my say so please only use small stakes, bet a own risk.
These are the prices now. I got some bigger last night, but also some were shorter last night and now bigger now.
My initial choice was Lord Buffhead, now a non runner. 2nd choice was Chateau Lola 3/1.
The favourite is still yet to win again after winning a Maiden at Leicester 2011, drops a Class today though. Lean On Pete 3/1 for me, won his last 2 races here, both with today’s jockey.
Scamperdale 25/1. As the price suggests long shot. But I’ve spotted something which makes me think maybe. The fav is odds on.
Bit unusual to me Violet Jordan only sends one horse here today: Brown Pete.
I’m staying loyal to Archie Stevens 15/8. Does look the best horse though & T.Dascombe’s only runner, plus was pulled out of an easier race yesterday at Lingfield. Although Fortinbrass could be hard to beat, ran a decent race last time at Class 4. Jim Crowley’s only ride here.
The fav Khawatim is yet to win over here (was originally in France), no decent form at all yet backed in from 9/1 to 3/1. For me Dancing Maite 20/1. Decent record here.
To be run, as a one off, on Wednesday 28th November.
Who gets the biggest combined odds (same as an accumulator, except you don’t need all your horses to win here, but obviously that’s what you are aiming for) from their selections is crowned the winner. So you can play it safe with short prices and hope most win, or go larger and maybe only need two or three winners. Choice is yours.
Thank you to WILLIAM HILL for kindly donating a Free £25 Bet for the winner.
You have a 2/1 winner, a 5/1 winner and 10/1 winner = 197/1 Treble
Two winners 4/1 and 3/1 = 19/1 Double
Four winners 4/6, 2/1, 5/4, 7/2 = 49/1 Accumulator
& obviously only one winner = single at whatever odds it was.
The 6 Races we are going to use are:
LINGFIELD 1pm, 1.30pm
WOLVERHAMPTON 1.40pm, 3.20pm
KEMPTON 4.30pm, 6pm
ONE horse per race, and WIN Only.
What’s in it for you
Other than the £25 FREE BET courtesy of William Hill and the Official Frankel DVD courtesy of myself….
Last times tips pages were retweeted many, many times, so you get exposure, maybe more followers and the pleasure of winning if you choose the right horses. Plus it’s good to compare with other people, and all on one page makes this much easier.
DEADLINE for Entries is 10.30am Tomorrow (Wed). But would be good if the majority were entered by tonight please.
To SUBMIT YOUR ENTRY: Copy and Paste the part highlighted below in Green, then just replace with your horses. Horse names in CAPITALS please. I can then copy and paste this myself as your entry. Send to my Twitter: @MartWes
1.00pm L SEA THE STARS
1.30pm L FRANKEL
1.40pm W DENMAN
3.20pm W SHERGAR
4.30pm K RED RUM
6.00pm K DESERT ORCHID
Winning prices will be based on SP’s.
Competition open to everyone who Follows me. You will be able to find the list of races/horses on At The Races, Racing Post, Sporting Life etc…
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STAR LINKS 7/1. Before any stats, the horses last two wins: Robert Winston has been in the saddle, he is tomorrow. Last two wins the horse has wore a hood. 3 runs since he hasn’t… The hood is back on tomorrow.
All Weather form (which just happens to all be Wolverhampton) at the Distance is: 2141153411, 3 of the 5 wins being at the Class (4).
In the last 6 months no horse in this race has won a Class 4 (or above) apart from… you guessed it.
Interestingly the horse has never won on turf, from 9 tries. So his most recent poor form (last 3 runs) were all on Yielding or Heavy turf, in Ireland.
This weekend I’ll be keeping faith with horses I’ve backed before.
Today it’s Capone and True To Form, both have been #HorsePointers and both done well at Kempton. First time I chose True To Form it was after a 200+ day lay off and having first run for new trainer.
At 33/1 he finished 4th. Next time out I was on again and he finished 2nd at 20/1. Capone won at 11/2, flying home under Hayley Turner. Both do better at Kempton, but worth a small chance today for low stakes.
They are both stepping up to Listed class today from Class 3, and both at Lingfield.
Capone (8/1): All-weather form is: 35231613131361. At Lingfield only is: 53133. Won 3 of last 6 at today’s Distance.
True To Form (12/1): won 2 of 3 races at the Distance on the All-weather. Won a Class 2 in March this year at Kempton, so only stepping up 1 Class from that. Won 2 of last 3 at Distance.
Also I’m going to have a dabble on Hunt Ball (9/1) in the Paddy Power Gold Cup. 5 places each way. He’s won 3 of 4 races on Ground that’s either Soft or Good to Soft, his Chase form over the extended 2m 4f is: 111111. His biggest test to date was last time out at the Aintree Grand National meeting, where he finished 3rd in a Grade 1, today is Grade 3. He won at this year’s Cheltenham Festival which was the first time I’ve backed him.
Two for tomorrow in the Racing Post Hurdle at Cheltenham:
Yet again both up in Class, and both RISKY. The stats are there though, the only problem ‘should’ be whether they can mix it at a higher level.
Dark Lover (12/1): I put this up last time out, when a winner at Cheltenham, same jockey this time. Hurdle form at 2m 1f: 111 on Ground ranging from Soft to Good.
Hi Dancer (40/1) One of my favourite horses, and he loves going left handed over hurdles. He’s won his last 4 hurdle races at 2m 1f, also on Ground Soft to Good. Partnered by regular jockey 10lb claimer Craig Gallagher.
Both have won at Class 3, this race is Class 1 (Grade 3)
All prices this morning: Bet365
Please remember these are just my bets, caution if you take notice and invest in them. My win strike rate isn’t impressive.
To put the page in perspective:
£5 win on all 28 Selections = £50 profit.
£5 each way on all 28 Selections = £116.93 profit.
Thur 29th Nov
|The Absent Mare||7/1||12/1||8th|
Sat 24th Nov
|Goldan Jess||12/1||11/1|| 2nd
Thur 22nd Nov
Wed 21st Nov
Wed 21st Nov
Tues 20th Nov
Mon 19th Nov
|Gabrial’s King||7/1||7/2|| 2nd
|Six Of Clubs||13/2||12/1||5th|
Sat 17th Nov
|True To Form||12/1||14/1|| 5th
Fri 16th Nov
|Come on BlueChip||5/1||6/1||2nd|
Thur 15th Nov
|Koo & The Gang||9/4||9/4||4th|
Wed 14th Nov
Wed 14th Nov
Thur 8th Nov
|Layali Dubai||5/2||6/4|| WON
Wed 7th Nov
|True To Form||12/1||20/1||2nd|
Mon 5th Nov
|Decision By One||8/1||7/2||12th|
Thur 1st Nov
|True To Form||25/1||33/1||4th|