Thursday’s Chester Pointers:
4 winners 8/1, 13/2, 5/1, 10/3.
4 2nds: 20/1, 8/1, 3/1, 2/1
Win = 57%, Place: 36%
Or 16% Win if you include all horses mentioned.
Yarmouth Pointers: 3 2nds from 5 horses stated (5/1, 13/2, 7/2) 60% Place
Just to reiterate, these are Pointers, not tips. I go through all previous form and highlight what I feel is relevant to try and pick the winner or decent places.
Do what you wish with the info provided… Placepot, Wins, Each Ways, or just observe.
Not looking like much value… Favourites mainly have the best stats…
1.35 Kyllachy Star (7/2) Won on Heavy and Placed 2 from 3 on Soft. Pintura (6/1) has 71% Place rate on Soft/Heavy. No horse in this race is a prolific winner at 7f, most averaging 17%. Louis The Pious (8/1) LH form: 5441112 & Course winner. One of my ‘follow horses’ Dubai Dynamo‘s (7/1) previous recent race results in May are: 122123.
2.35 None have won on Soft. Brown Panther (Evs) won on Good to Soft, Course winner, 2nd in St Leger. Vivacious Vivienne (14/1) the only Distance winner, placed 2 from 3 on Heavy.
3.05 Ballesteros (2/1) 2-2 on Heavy, won last three at 5f. Sonko won 4, plus 3 places from 10 5f races (7/1).
3.40 Glenridding (16/1) won 2 on Heavy, 1 on Soft. April Fool (8/1) won 2 and placed 2 from last 4 at the Distance. Kingswinford (9/1) won last 2 at Chester, 55% Place on Soft.
4.15 Maiden race: Lady Loch (9/4 Betfair) placed on Soft, two 2nds at 7f.
4.45 The best on Ground worse than Good are: Mica Mika (2nd two Classes higher) (5/2) and English Summer (7/2).
A very frustrating day yesterday with 0 Winners, but 5 2nds from 7 races, 3 of which were done just before the line.
Combined distances for all five 2nds was just over 6 lengths!
Win = 0%, Place = 71%
or 30% if you include all horses mentioned on the pointers.
It takes 2 hours on average to do these Pointers, and with Chester being a farce yesterday and the ground even worse today after more rain overnight.
mSo I’m just going to highlight horses that have winning or place form on Soft and Heavy and do well at the course.
Also on some, in brackets is the horse’s best form.
This is more for reference today, than to say I’m betting on these myself today.
Won on Soft: Kingswarrior (3/1), Absinthe (9/4), Call to Reason (11/1), The Bells O Peover (16/1), Robemaker (9/2)
Won on Heavy: Kingswarrior
Best Course Form: Oceanway (16/1), Opera Gal (won Class 1) (6/1)
Won on Soft: Marcret (9/2), Myplacelater (18/1), Hunter’s Light (won 3 Class 1′s) (5/2)
Won on Heavy: Marcret, Prince Siegfried (12/1), Questioning (3/1)
Best Course Form: Glen’s Diamond (9/1)
Won on Soft: Minimise Risk (8/1)
Won on Heavy: David Livingstone (3rd in Group 1) (5/2)
Best Course Form: N/A
Masterel was by far the best on Ground but a Non-runner.
Best Course Form: Gabriel (won Class 2) (13/8)
Placed on Soft: Majestic Jess (33/1)
Best Course Form: N/A
Won on Soft: Jack Dexter (5/1), Master of Ages (20/1), Kimbali (10/1), Rusty Rocket (14/1)
Won on Heavy: Gabriel’s Bounty (8/1)
Best Course Form: Marford Missile (9/1)
Won on Soft: Stand To Reason (15/8), Resurge (won Class 2 & 3) (8/1)
Best Course Form: Calaf (5/2)
Drawn 1: King’s Warrior, Questioning.
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Yarmouth Heavy Winners:
5.55 Cuckoo Rock (5/1)
6.55 European Dream (6/1) & On The Cusp (20/1)
7.25 Clumber Place (6/1) & Caramelita (7/2)
Only one winner last night at Catterick (Green Howard 8/1), but also got 2nd in all 6 races, plus a couple of 3rds. Out of 12 horses mentioned 10 placed (inc. winner)… Place prices: 12/1, 10/1, 8/1, 5/1, 4/1, 3/1, 9/4, Evens.
Yesterday’s Win rate = 8%, Place = 83%
On to today, CHESTER, where the first four races are live on Channel 4.
1.35 Chester Tharawal Lady is the only one to win on Soft, and 1-1 at 5f, Class 5. Dreamy Ciara won 2 races at 5f, both left handed (which Chester is). Just Past Andover won last time out on Heavy, Class 5 at 5f. (11/4, 25/1, 7/2)
2.05 Chester Sorry for mentioning a lot in this race, but there’s a lot of factors -Soft winners: Cubanita (+ 2nd), Cockney Sparrow & Inchina. Inchina won at a higher class than her competitors. Absolute Crackers won lto, and has been 2nd in a Listed race before. Betterbetterbetter is the only Distance winner, O’Brien won this race 3 out of last 4 years. (Cub 4/1, Cockney16/1, Inchina 9/1, Abs 6/1, Better 15/8)
2.35 Chester (Cup) 8 horses have won on Soft, Ajaan has won 3 of 7 and is only 1 of 2 to win at the Distance. Kiama Bay won on Soft and 1st and 2nd at Chester. Never Can Tell the only Distance winner and Course form is: 7121. Harrison’s Cave won on Soft & Heavy and A.O’Brien is 4-4 here with R.Moore. (33/1, 25/1, 8/1, 8/1)
3.05 Chester Foxy Music won on Soft & Heavy, and recent Course form is 121. Dickie´s Lad has been 2nd in his last 4 LH races. Tax Free 60% place rate at 5f, from 30 races, and to me on Class stats is the best horse. None of the runners in this race are prolific winners at this Class. (10/1, 5/1, 8/1)
3.40 A Maiden and none are unraced. Not much to go on. Finity Run was 2nd at the Distance on Heavy. (8/1)
4.15 Chester Borderlescott (65% Place rate LH) won on Soft & Heavy before. Noble Storm won 3 of last 4 LH, and 2 of 4 in May and just ticks the Distance box ahead of the rest. These two head the Class. (8/1, 3/1)
4.45 Chester Gabrial The Great the only one to win on Soft, but 8 are untried. Juno The Muffinman won at the Distance, and 4th on Heavy. (9/2, 14/1)
The Draw usually plays a big part here, and 3 of the above are drawn in Stall 1: Tharawal Lady, Cubanita & Tax Free.
Not the best day at all. Two horses I picked out but didn’t put on here, or do in singles, both won (Lightening Pearl & Book’em Danno). The danger I thought in Pepper Lane’s race won (Advanced)… One of my other ‘follow horses’ got 2nd: Dubai Dynamo at Chester. Football accumulator only had 3 wins, and Rooney isn’t even playing!
To sum it up: my betting account is empty and I’m not impressed.
Thanks for taking the time to read my blog. I’ve covered most meetings today. I had 3 bets this week, resulting in 2 wins (Hazy Tom 11/8, Shouda 7/2) and a 3rd, but Saturday racing is always much harder.
1.50 Pollen Jock (7/1 each way) is a horse I follow, and he has good form here. Second on his last effort, so drop in trip today should be a wise move. Main danger could be Businessmoney Judi. (5th, should of got 3rd)
2.20 – A tough race, I could pick 3. But I will stay loyal to another horse I follow: Rajnagan (7/1 each way). Finished 4th last time here, in a Listed race. (3rd, so got each way money)
3.10 I’m guessing most will think Sahpresa will win this. I’ve opted for Alanza (7/2). Big step up in class, but John Oxx has 100% record in England so far this year. The extra furlong should help. And the horse hasn’t been suplemented just for the fresh air. (6th, never in it)
3.50 (Cambridgeshire) I’ll take a chance on Questioning (10/1 each way) Gosden has won this race 3 out of last 5 years, although the horse hasn’t won on grass, but has been placed 3 out of last 5 races, 2nd to King Torus latest. (near last)
2.15 You will see there’s a theme developing today… Kenyan Cat (13/2), another horse I follow. There’s nearly 40 horses on my ‘follow list’. I haven’t picked them today just for that reason. I do think they have a chance of winning. (2nd, short head)
4.15 I chose Pepper Lane (6/1) last week for the Ayr Gold Cup, the ground (mud) didn’t suit that day, but today she’s back at Ripon where she does well. So I’m sticking with her for today. It’s risky though as she’s carrying a LOT of weight. (unplaced)
No bet, but I’d like to see Fazza win the 3.45.
4.25 Loosen My Load (4/6) should win this. Best horse by far. (WON)
5.20 Barons Spy (12/1 each way). Won once at the course, and 7 times at the distance. Finishes well. (unplaced)
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I did a 7-fold accumulator on Tuesday. I feel all the teams should win. But chances of all 7? Very slim. 86/1 in fact. You never know though. The teams are:
- Southampton @ 6/5 DREW
- Derby @ 13/10 WON
- West Ham @ 8/15 WON
- Middlesbrough @ 4/6 DREW
- Sheff Utd @ EVS LOST
- Sheff Wed @ 8/13 WON
- MK Dons @ 11/10 DREW
If you just want a treble, both Sheffield teams + Middlesbrough = 4/1
Wayne Rooney or Nani to score first is 7/4 (v. Stoke) (WON! Nani, Rooney not even in squad)
Retweets welcome. thanks.
Hi, thanks for taking time to read my Blog. Some Selections for Today’s Racing. Mainly favourites, but aslong as they win who cares
2.10 – Rajnagan 13/8 (WINNER!) Been flying lately over hurdles, winning 3 of 4, latest being 4th in a listed race at Market Rasen, on ground he doesn’t win on (soft). Now on the flat on Good ground. Big chance, only draw back is it’s an amateur riders race.
4.30 – Polygon 7/4 (4th) John Gosden & William Buick, plus bottom weight, stepped up in class though.
5.30 -It’s between Mystic Edge (unplaced) 3/1 and Ice Nelly 9/2, with the latter being 7lb less. But Mystic Edge is Michael Bell & Hayley Turner’s only reason for going there today and is going for the hattrick. I will side with Mystic Edge – Reverse Forecast could be good.
3.40 – Executive’s Hall 7/2 (2nd) Working wonders for new trainer, and over a stone less than the other horse I think that could figure: Cat Six.
5.45 – Oriental Cavalier 8/1, (unplaced) nearly always places here. Each Way
(I’ve removed George Adamson due to now being a non-runner)
2.40 – Goldikova 8/15 (WINNER!) Won 16 races from 21, 13 being Group 1′s! She aims to win this race for the 3rd time and add another Group 1 win to her impressive tally. Timepiece to finish 2nd for the Forecast.
Another horse to note, purely on name only: Usain Colt, 3.20 Newbury. Not at all saying this is a tip, just a clever play on words.
My first time doing masses of selections (I usually choose between 4 and 7 horses per Saturday) So it will either be successful, or disasterous. I’ve left out Lingfield and Hexham, but still done every race from 5 meetings.
There was a LOT of work gone into this, so if you use any of the tips and they win please leave a ‘thanks’ message on my twitter http://www.twitter.com/martwes
2.15 TWEEDLEDRUM 3/1 (2nd)
2.45 BLOWDEN ABBEY (E/W) 12/1 (unplaced)
3.20 FRED WILLETTS 5/1 (WINNER)
3.55 OPERA GAL 9/2 (3rd)
4.30 LORD OF THE DANCE 7/1 (unplaced)
5.50 LORD AVON 7/1 (WINNER)
5.40 KENYON CAT 7/2 (WINNER)
1.55 TULLUIS (E/W) 8/1 (2nd) winning tip as stated each way
2.25 SOUND AMIGO 7/2 (unplaced)
2.55 THE CONFESSOR (E/W) 7/1 (3rd) winning tip as stated each way
3.30 DINKUM DIAMOND 11/2 (2nd)
4.05 SHARPENED EDGE 4/1 (unplaced)
4.40 MONOPOLIZE 9/2 (unplaced)
5.15 HIGH ON A HILL 13/2 (unplaced)
2.10 SIR BOSS (E/W) 16/1 (unplaced)
2.40 KAY GEE BE 6/1 (3rd)
3.15 SEAL ROCK 8/1 (nb) (unplaced - got bumped)
3.50 SEA MOON 5/6 (WINNER)
4.25 SWISS SPIRIT 10/11 (WINNER)
5.00 BERTIEWHITTLE 9/4 (unplaced)
5.30 COLLECT ART 6/1 (2nd - pipped just before the line after leading)
2.20 ON THE CUSP (is now a Non-Runner)
2.50 NUDE (E/W) 7/1 (unplaced)
3.25 THE DANCING LORD 14/1 (E/W) (unplaced)
4.00 SUPRIOR EDGE 7/1 (unplaced)
4.35 DR DARCY 7/2 (2nd – led all the way and lost on the line!!!)
5.10 DUNGEN DREAM 8/1 (unplaced)
6.30 SIX WIVES 6/4 (nap) (2nd)
7.00 TICKLED PINK 5/1 (2nd)
7.30 OSGOOD 9/2 (unplaced)
8.00 FROZEN OVER 5/1 (unplaced)
8.30 CHORAL 4/1 (unplaced)
9.00 GOTHIC CHICK 9/2 (unplaced)
All prices are Paddy Power this morning