My Bets for Saturday, only small stakes. Bet at your own risk if you do these too.
2.20 – Highland Knight 3/1
2.55 - Franciscan 9/1
3.30 – Staying loyal to these 2: if the ground is Soft: Thunderball 18/1, Good: Spinatrix 14/1
4.05 – Albaqaa 4/1, Duke of Clarence 8/1
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A photo of Wednesday’s 40/1 winner MAYFIELD GIRL, my biggest ever.
Photo copyright SD Photos:
These are just my bets/picks, which I share hoping they’re decent. If you do any of these on my say so, bet entirely at your own risk, thanks for looking.
Doncaster 3.05 The William Hill Lincoln Handicap
Swiftly Done 25/1
Has had 22 races, finished in the first 3 11 times, winning 1 of 3 Class 2 races. Won 4 of last 8 races at a mile. Big price but at 4 places each way I’m having a go. Has won on Soft aswell. Jockey is a 7lb claimer I’ve never heard of though, so is risky.
Chapter Seven 11/1
Is a C&D winner on Soft ground. Only had 2 starts on Soft, won both, the other being at York. Graham Lee rides.
These are the 2 I was initially on last week before the meeting was cancelled, and I’m on again today. Luckly they are still roughly the same prices.
BIG PRICES: I haven’t bet on these two (hope that’s not a mistake), but I think they’re worth a mention: Majestic Myles 40/1, Chosen Character 28/1.
A superb record of 3 wins from 3 races at 6 furlongs on Soft ground.
Very consistent. Form on Soft: 1322. 27% win and 93% place at 6 furlongs. Again another unknown 7lb claimer onboard.
The Lockmaster 10/1
This is a horse I keep an eye on. Never seems to run a bad race, although just lately hasn’t produced the goods on the all weather since winning at Southwell. Trainer Michael Appleby has confirmed my thoughts to why this is. Today could be a different matter. Won 2 of last 3 10 furlong races, all on turf. Has won here before.
Kempton Each Way Lucky 15
2.20 Robin Hoods Bay 2/1
2.55 Buckland 7/1
4.05 Spirit of Sharjah 25/1
4.35 Seek The Fair Land 16/1
Warning: I know virtually nothing about Dubai Racing
But Meydan Each Way Lucky 15
1.10 Moonwalk In Paris 9/1
2.25 Shuruq 8/1
3.45 Krypton Factor 9/1
4.40 Sajjhaa 7/1
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A very foggy day with extremely poor visability. I’m not overly happy with a lot of these photos due to that, as I’ve had to adjust them in Photoshop to try and get rid of the fog.
Click Photos to see the whole image, and full size. Hover over Photo for Caption.
These are the prices now. I got some bigger last night, but also some were shorter last night and now bigger now.
My initial choice was Lord Buffhead, now a non runner. 2nd choice was Chateau Lola 3/1.
The favourite is still yet to win again after winning a Maiden at Leicester 2011, drops a Class today though. Lean On Pete 3/1 for me, won his last 2 races here, both with today’s jockey.
Scamperdale 25/1. As the price suggests long shot. But I’ve spotted something which makes me think maybe. The fav is odds on.
Bit unusual to me Violet Jordan only sends one horse here today: Brown Pete.
I’m staying loyal to Archie Stevens 15/8. Does look the best horse though & T.Dascombe’s only runner, plus was pulled out of an easier race yesterday at Lingfield. Although Fortinbrass could be hard to beat, ran a decent race last time at Class 4. Jim Crowley’s only ride here.
The fav Khawatim is yet to win over here (was originally in France), no decent form at all yet backed in from 9/1 to 3/1. For me Dancing Maite 20/1. Decent record here.
One winner yesterday 12/1, and the Frankel/Excelebration forecast & 16/1 place.
Anything could happen today… Lots of massive fields, but that also brings big prices.
2.30 (Class 1 Jersey Stakes) 26 runner race… Laffan (40/1) won last 2 on Ground, won last 2 at Distance. Producer (20/1) won 4 of last 5 on Ground and Distance, won at Class. Reply (7/1) 40% win & 80% place on Ground, won 1-1 at Distance, placed at Group 1 & 1 of only 2 horses to win a big field race. Sovereign Debt (14/1) won 2-2 at Course, won 1-2 at Distance, won 2-4 on Ground.
3.05 (Group 2 Windsor Forest) Emulous (7/2) won 4-4 on Ground, won last 4 at Distance, won Group 1. Nahrain (4/1) won 3-3 at Distance, won 2-3 on Ground, won & placed from 2 Group 1′s. Chachamaidee (4/1) 83% place on Ground, 67% place at Distance, 21% win & 71% place at Class 1. Law Of The Range (50/1) won 4 of last 7 at Distance, won 1-1 at Course, 25% win & 75% place at Class 1.
3.45 (Group 1 Prince of Wales) So You Think (Evens) 57% win & 86% place on Ground, 64% win at Distance, but not won in last 3, 60% win at Group 1. Carlton House (3/1) won 2-2 at Distance, won 2-3 at Class 1. Reliable Man (14/1) won 2-2 at Distance.
4.25 (Class 2 Royal Hunt Cup) 30 runners… Boom And Bust (22/1) won 4 of last 5 at Distance, won at Class. Arabian Star (16/1) won & placed 3 times at Distance from 4 runs, won at Class. King Torus (50/1) won 2-2 Group 2. Edinburgh Knight (14/1) won & placed from 3 runs at Course, won at Class. All 3 except King Torus won a big field race.
5.00 (Group 2 Queen Mary) 27 runners… Ceiling Kitty (14/1) won Listed Race, won on Ground & Distance. Graphic Guest (8/1) only Course winner, won at Distance & Ground.
5.35 (Class 1 Sandringham) Esentepe (11/1) 20% win & 60% place on Ground, 35% win & 75% place at Distance, won at Class. Pimpernel (10/1) 33% win & 67% place on Ground, won at Class. Falls Of Lora (20/1) won on Ground & at Distance, Course winner.
No Pointers yesterday, Monday’s at Pontefract produced a 5/1 winner and 11/1, 11/1 & 9/1 places.
HAYDOCK (Good to Soft)
2.20 (Class 4) Naseem Alyasmeen (5/1) placed 2-2 on Ground, 50% win & 75% place in handicaps & placed at Class. Winner´s Wish (4/1) the only Distance winner, won 1-3 handicaps.
3.50 (Class 3) Number Theory (5/1) won & 75% place on Ground, 67% place in handicaps, won twice and 100% place at Course. Royal Swain (20/1) won 1-1 on Ground, placed at Distance, 40% place in handicaps, placed at Class
4.20 (Class 4) Main choice is a non-runner so: Icy Blue (14/1) placed on all 3 runs at Course.
4.50 (Class 4) Kenyan Cat (3/1) placed 2-2 on Ground, 82% place at Distance & placed at Course, won & placed at Class. St Ignatius (11/2) won 1-1 at Distance, won last 2 handicaps, won 1-1 at Course.
I’ve also have a look at BEVERLEY and I’ll highlight: Highland Warrior 4/1, Fenella Fudge 7/2, Kian’s Joy 11/4,
Ownaracehorse had their annual Stable Visit to Derek Shaw‘s today, and luckily the weather was perfect.
There was a big turnout of shareholders to see the horses they had with Derek Shaw, which are: Dancing Ellie Mae, Miss Starry Eyed and Prickles.
All three horses were paraded, and then it was on to the gallops to see them do some light work. After this Derek and Lyndsey Shaw gave us free rein to have a wander around the yard and see the other horses they have in training.
Another top day out. Well organised by Richard, and I’d like to thank him and the Shaw’s for their time.
To make our day even better we went to see Classy Lass in the field before we left. She looked to be enjoying her new life, whilst awaiting a new home. In the field she has a new friend T-Rex and they appeared to be very friendly. She still looks as good as ever.
Click Pics for full size Photo…
Well my two selections for the 2000 Guineas were disappointing. As were all the ‘fancied horses’ other than Camelot.
I did state though that I wasn’t overly confident about Power & Trumpet Major.
I do feel more keen on my two for the Fillies equivilant.
The Godolphin pair of Discourse and Lyric of Light. (Both 10/1)
Maybe ‘should’ win, but at 6/4 I won’t be touching her, when you can do an each way and gain 3 places and still gain more value than her price.
My 2000 Guineas picks were both drawn high, and I’ve looked where all the winners were drawn there on Saturday and they were: 4, 1, 12, 2, 3, 7, & 8… So Bottom half were/is the better.
My Godolphin runners are drawn 10 and 11.
As I’m doing this the night before it’s a bit of a guessing game with the going, today it was supposed to be Good to Soft, so I’ll use that and Good incase there’s a miracle over night…
Good to Soft winners: Only three: Lily’s Angel, Mashoora, Lyric of Light.
Good winners: 14 of the 18 runners.
100% Course winners: Lyric of Light, Discourse, The Fugue, Lightening Pearl.
Group 1 Winners: Lyric of Light, Maybe, Lightening Pearl, La Collina, Nayarra.
None of the fillies in the field have won at over a mile.
American Bred horses have won 4 of the last 10… Only USA bred this year: Discourse.
One strong Trend is born before April 1st, which rules out 8 runners.
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Not Pointers today, just my Sire observations really:
A Sire I rate Kyllachy, has 3 runners out on Sunday, one at each meeting:
3.25 Hamilton Free Zone Has won his last three 5 furlong races, and has finished 1st and 2nd from 2 races on the ground. (3/1)
2.55 Salisbury Tassel steps up a class, but won his first race impressively at Newmarket last month.
4.25 Newmarket First time out for Michael Bell Kimberella.
Fazza’s Sire Sulamani (who was Godolphin’s 100th Group/Grade 1 winner), has one runner out on Sunday, at Hamilton, Jonny Delta. Has been 2nd on 1 attempt on the ground. (7/1)
Thanks for taking time to look.
Last times pointers returned 22% win rate, 55% place rate.
Please note these are just pointers, NOT saying to bet on them just on my say so…
All my own work, so please RT if you use anything below or find it interesting:
Not the strongest of races this year. A couple of the runners have only previously won Class 4, 5 or 6.
Only 3 have won a Group 1: Power, French Fifteen & Camelot.
If the Going truly is Good to Soft, 7 of the 18 runners have won on this ground.
Only 3 are Course winners: Red Duke, Trumpet Major & Coupe De Ville.
My Picks, not overly confident are: Trumpet Major & Power, both drawn high, (both 10/1).
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Sir Henry Cecil only has 1 runner today at Newmarket 4.55 Noble Mission (2/1).
He also only has 1 runner at Goodwood (2.15) today Vita Nova (4/7).
4.55 Newmarket Mister Music has won and placed at a higher level than others in this race (8/1).
4.05 Goodwood Barefoot Lady takes a big step down in Class (6/4). First race though for 245 days.
I prefer Esentepe (4/1).
4.20 Newmarket Sans Loi record in Class 2 is 1st and 2nd from 3 runs (11/1).
Hayley Turner goes to Doncaster (8.00) for one ride Silverheels (7/2), after riding at Newmarket today, and back down there for tomorrow. Has odds-on fav to beat though.
Ladbrokes spokesman on ATR this morning said they’re happy to lay anything except Camelot (15/8).
Super Sire Galileo only has 6 of his progeny running today… Two being the Sir Henry runners mentioned above.
Big Mover: Pearl Ice 14/1 into 9/2, 7.25 Doncaster.
7.25 Doncaster Fast Shot‘s form at the course is 1st & 3rd, from 2 runs (10/1).
The day’s top earner Dunaden has won over £3million in prize money, compared to the fav in his race who has only won £330,000 (11/2).
Yesterday saw Fazza head to Pontefract for his second race this Flat Season. The official going was heavy, and walking across the course from the car park and on the grass surrounding the course it was indeed very soft and sticky.
Fazza was the only horse in his race to have any form on heavy, having placed 3rd last October at Haydock. It was the first time Shane Kelly had rode him, and he did everything that was asked of him. Coming up the hill it looked like Fazza had guaranteed at least 2nd place, only to be over taken by the fast finishing favourite just before the line.
Either way neither horse was going to take over the winner. We were very pleased with the performance – as Fazza always tries his heart out, and now might go even better next time now he’s got 2 runs under him.
It was a remarkable day for Fazza’s trainer Edwin Tuer, with Fazza placing, and his stable mate (owned by Edwin) Easy Terms winning the feature race, the Class 3 Ladbrokes Fillies Handicap Stakes at early odds of 16/1 under a super ride from James Sullivan. The pair now have an amazing record together of 5 wins from only 6 races!
As usual, click pics for full size images