Decent day today at Southwell, put two horses on Twitter, one won, 20/1 sp Calculating.
No big prices there for Wednesday, well not to me anyway. I’ve picked the horses as per normal and then as always price up after. Prices are Bet365 and might be slightly out of date now time I’ve done this blog, but are genuine.
I’ll write a very brief line for each, to give you a part of the reason I’ve chosen them.
If either of the 3.10, 3.45, 4.20 or 4.55 are to get beat, here’s what I think by, so Reverse Forecast:
3.10 Caldercruix / Kung Hei Fat Choy
3.45 Sewn Up / Hannah’s Turn
4.20 Rio Cobolo / Elusive Hawk
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My picks for Monday’s Racing…
2.00 Madame Lillibet 5/2
2.30 Charlie’s Vic 1/3
3.40 Markadam 11/2, McMurrough 12/1
4.40 Imjoeking 5/4
1.50 Midnight Macarena 6/4
2.50 Wychwoods Brook 6/5
3.15 Bussa 11/4
4.20 Red Somerset 11/8
5.25 Scamperdale 12/1
5.55 Sewn Up 13/2
^ 8.10am: all races priced up now… The two short odds ones were picked last night, prior to being priced up this morning. 5/4 was the shortest price.
These are the prices now. I got some bigger last night, but also some were shorter last night and now bigger now.
My initial choice was Lord Buffhead, now a non runner. 2nd choice was Chateau Lola 3/1.
The favourite is still yet to win again after winning a Maiden at Leicester 2011, drops a Class today though. Lean On Pete 3/1 for me, won his last 2 races here, both with today’s jockey.
Scamperdale 25/1. As the price suggests long shot. But I’ve spotted something which makes me think maybe. The fav is odds on.
Bit unusual to me Violet Jordan only sends one horse here today: Brown Pete.
I’m staying loyal to Archie Stevens 15/8. Does look the best horse though & T.Dascombe’s only runner, plus was pulled out of an easier race yesterday at Lingfield. Although Fortinbrass could be hard to beat, ran a decent race last time at Class 4. Jim Crowley’s only ride here.
The fav Khawatim is yet to win over here (was originally in France), no decent form at all yet backed in from 9/1 to 3/1. For me Dancing Maite 20/1. Decent record here.
To put the page in perspective:
£5 win on all 28 Selections = £50 profit.
£5 each way on all 28 Selections = £116.93 profit.
Thur 29th Nov
|The Absent Mare||7/1||12/1||8th|
Sat 24th Nov
|Goldan Jess||12/1||11/1|| 2nd
Thur 22nd Nov
Wed 21st Nov
Wed 21st Nov
Tues 20th Nov
Mon 19th Nov
|Gabrial’s King||7/1||7/2|| 2nd
|Six Of Clubs||13/2||12/1||5th|
Sat 17th Nov
|True To Form||12/1||14/1|| 5th
Fri 16th Nov
|Come on BlueChip||5/1||6/1||2nd|
Thur 15th Nov
|Koo & The Gang||9/4||9/4||4th|
Wed 14th Nov
Wed 14th Nov
Thur 8th Nov
|Layali Dubai||5/2||6/4|| WON
Wed 7th Nov
|True To Form||12/1||20/1||2nd|
Mon 5th Nov
|Decision By One||8/1||7/2||12th|
Thur 1st Nov
|True To Form||25/1||33/1||4th|
Struggling today… I looked at Newmarket last night, and couldn’t find anything strong there aswell. I found a strong selection in the 4.55 York, went to check price and non runner!
There’s 38 non runners at York today, so the bookies have cut a lot of prices with depleted fields, there’s 9 out in the first race alone!
Also with 2 decent days in a row trying to make it 3 in a row and on the hardest day of the week plus with added expectation = pressure.
Hard race to call, I’ve narrowed it to 3: Jamaican Bolt, Verinco, Steps. Because I can’t narrow it to one I’ll skip this race. So win or lose, I won’t be using this races result.
Bubbly Bellini 15/2. (Unplaced) I was given this in the week by @BigTajMamal, and having checked the horse today I can see why. Form on Heavy/Soft is: 31311 between 5f and 7f. Today’s race is 6f. He won 2 weeks ago at the Curragh, 6f Heavy.
River Dragon 9/2. (Unplaced) Heavy form (including hurdling): 2132411. Has won 2 of 3 Flat races on Heavy. Impressive win last week at Hexham, must of traded massive in running.
Calaf 11/2. (Unplaced) The only horse to win on Heavy at today’s Distance, at Ayr 11 days ago (Class 3). Jockey Dale Swift is 2 wins from 3 when riding, and horse has won last two races since wearing headgear… It’s on again today. Horses previous win was Class 4.
I’m not very confident today, so please don’t bet too much if you use the above selections.
7.05 (Class 6 Claimer) Daddy Warbucks (11/4) won 1-1 on All-weather (at Southwell) at Class 5, won 1-1 in Claimers (at Redcar) both 7f though. Smart Affair (16/1) the only horse to win at Distance, also won at Course, won at Class.
8.05 (Class 5) Sweetnessandlight (3/1) won 2-2 at Distance, won 2-4 at Course, Class 6 though. Basantee (7/1) won 1-1 at Course, 2-6 at Distance, won at Class 4 & 5.
8.35 (Class 5) Punching (8/1) 9 times Course & Distance winner (3 at Class 5) plus 10 places from 24 races (38% win & 67% place), won on last 2 visits.
9.05 (Class 6) Carnac (5/2) 46% place at Distance, 48% place at Course including 4 wins. Cozy Tiger (7/2) won at Distance & Course. Both won at Class 5 & 6.
I’ve already done today’s Royal Ascot Pointers which are here
But I’ve also had a look at Redcar today, with Royal Ascot proving a lottery this week. I’ve researched them like normal, and then checked prices after. Unfortunately most are either favourite or second favourite. Which means short prices, but also means they “should” win.
3.20 (Class 5)
Al Furat (10/3) won & placed on Ground, won 2 of 3 at Course & won at class.
4.00 (Class 3)
Kiwi Bay (11/4) only horse to win on Ground, won at Distance, 4 x Course winner & 78% place & won at Class.
Next Edition (11/4) placed on Ground, placed all 3 runs at Distance, won & placed from 3 runs at Course.
4.35 (Class 6)
Scottish Boogie (Non-runner)
Eijazz (6/1) 24% win & 43% place on Ground, 14% win & 43% place at Distance, won twice at Course, 60% place at Class.
5.10 (Class 5)
Broctune Papa Gio (4/1) won & 43% place at Distance, 22% win & 56% place at Distance, 3 x Course winner & 56% place there, 33% win & 67% place at Class.
Outlaw Torn (10/1) won on Ground from2 runs, 20% win & 40% place at Distance, placed at Class.
All my own work, so please RT if you use anything or find it interesting, thanks.
Bad day on Thursday, no winners, just Bronze Angel 20/1 3rd.
Please Note: These Pointers are based on the going hopefully being Soft.
2.30 (Group 3 Albany) Premier Steps (20/1) won 1-1 at Course on Soft, 5f though. Newfangled (2/1) won on soft Ground at Distance. All On Red (40/1) won on soft Ground at Distance, placed at Class 2. Sendmylovetorose (14/1) won on soft Ground at Distance.
3.05 (Group 2 King Edward) Shantaram non runner so: Noble Mission won on soft Ground, won Listed race (4/1). Astrology (5/4) place at Group 1, 2 & won Group 3, won on soft Ground.
3.45 (Group 1 Coronation) Laugh Out Loud (5/1) won 4 of 5 at Distance. Homecoming Queen (7/2) won at Distance and Group 1. Samitar (9/2) 25% win & 75% place at Distance, won Group 1.
4.25 (Listed Wolferton) Retrieve (16/1) won on heavy Ground & placed on soft, won & 43% place at Distance. Qaraaba (8/1) won last 2 on soft Ground, won 2 of last 3 at Distance.
5.00 (Group 3 Queen’s Vase) No horse won at the Distance. Athens (4/1) won on soft Ground & placed on heavy, placed at Group 3. Macbeth (7/1) won on soft Ground & placed on heavy.
5.25 (Class 2 Buckingham Palace) ‘Lottery race’, 30 runners… in no order: Thunderball (33/1) won last 2 on soft Ground, won at Course. Global Village (10/1) won 2 of 3 on soft Ground, won last 2 at Distance, Course winner. Primaeval (10/1) won 3 of last 4 at Distance, won at Class, placed at Course. Bronze Prince (25/1) won at Distance, at Class, at Course.
Prices are all Bet365
All my own work, so please RT if you use anything or find it interesting, thanks.
One winner yesterday 12/1, and the Frankel/Excelebration forecast & 16/1 place.
Anything could happen today… Lots of massive fields, but that also brings big prices.
2.30 (Class 1 Jersey Stakes) 26 runner race… Laffan (40/1) won last 2 on Ground, won last 2 at Distance. Producer (20/1) won 4 of last 5 on Ground and Distance, won at Class. Reply (7/1) 40% win & 80% place on Ground, won 1-1 at Distance, placed at Group 1 & 1 of only 2 horses to win a big field race. Sovereign Debt (14/1) won 2-2 at Course, won 1-2 at Distance, won 2-4 on Ground.
3.05 (Group 2 Windsor Forest) Emulous (7/2) won 4-4 on Ground, won last 4 at Distance, won Group 1. Nahrain (4/1) won 3-3 at Distance, won 2-3 on Ground, won & placed from 2 Group 1′s. Chachamaidee (4/1) 83% place on Ground, 67% place at Distance, 21% win & 71% place at Class 1. Law Of The Range (50/1) won 4 of last 7 at Distance, won 1-1 at Course, 25% win & 75% place at Class 1.
3.45 (Group 1 Prince of Wales) So You Think (Evens) 57% win & 86% place on Ground, 64% win at Distance, but not won in last 3, 60% win at Group 1. Carlton House (3/1) won 2-2 at Distance, won 2-3 at Class 1. Reliable Man (14/1) won 2-2 at Distance.
4.25 (Class 2 Royal Hunt Cup) 30 runners… Boom And Bust (22/1) won 4 of last 5 at Distance, won at Class. Arabian Star (16/1) won & placed 3 times at Distance from 4 runs, won at Class. King Torus (50/1) won 2-2 Group 2. Edinburgh Knight (14/1) won & placed from 3 runs at Course, won at Class. All 3 except King Torus won a big field race.
5.00 (Group 2 Queen Mary) 27 runners… Ceiling Kitty (14/1) won Listed Race, won on Ground & Distance. Graphic Guest (8/1) only Course winner, won at Distance & Ground.
5.35 (Class 1 Sandringham) Esentepe (11/1) 20% win & 60% place on Ground, 35% win & 75% place at Distance, won at Class. Pimpernel (10/1) 33% win & 67% place on Ground, won at Class. Falls Of Lora (20/1) won on Ground & at Distance, Course winner.
The best meeting of the year in my opinion by a mile… Royal Ascot.
ASCOT (Good to Soft)
2.30 (Group 1 Queen Anne) Pretty obvious: Frankel won 2-2 on Ground, won 7-7 at Distance, won 6-6 at Group 1, won 3-3 at Course. Excelebration untried on Ground, won 2 at Distance and 100% place also 100% place in Group 1, winning 1, placed 2-2 at Course. (Recommendation: Forecast).
3.05 (Group 1 King’s Stand) Ortensia (5/1) won 5 times and 73% place on Ground, won 4 of 5 at Distance, won last 2 Group 1′s. Little Bridge (11/1) won 5-7 at Distance. Prohibit (14/1) won last 2 at Course including at Group 1.
3.45 (Group 1 St Jame’s Palace) Lucayan (11/1) won and placed from 2 runs on Ground, won last 2 and 100% place at Distance, won 1-1 at Group 1. Power (10/3) 40% win & 80% place at Group 1, won 1-1 at Course, won 1-2 at Distance.
4.25 (Group 2 Coventry) Sir Prancealot (4/1) won at Class 1, won 1-1 at Distance. Top Boy (66/1) placed at Class 1, placed on Ground, placed 2-4 at Distance, the only horse to previously ran at Course, finishing 4th.
5.00 (Class 2 Ascot Stakes) Veiled (9/1) the only Distance winner, only Course winner, won at Class.
5.35 (Windsor Castle Listed Class 1) Smoothtalkinrascal (8/1) won on Ground & at Distance. Mossgo (66/1) won on Ground & at Distance. Bungle Inthejungle (14/1) won at Class 2, won last 2 at Distance
Prices = Bet365