First of all, I’m just an average punter. I don’t claim to be a know it all when it comes to betting, and I don’t claim to be a pro. Some days I win, most days I don’t. And I know there’s a LOT more knowledgeable betting folk out there than me and are able to make a living from it.
These are just my ramblings and I know some will agree, and others will think it’s total rubbish. I know some of it is obvious, and I’m not implying it’s stuff you don’t already know. Also I’m NOT intending to offend anyone, we all have our own systems and own ways to do what works for you. These thoughts are just something I’m going to do myself…
It’s taken me many a year, but I’ve finally realised that I should try Each Way betting more. Rather than short priced horses all the time.
My normal bets consist of nearly always below 4/1 and win only. More often than not 2/1 or less, and a lot of favourites.
Very very rarely do I do each ways.
Last weekend I tried something different and tried to pick some each ways at 6/1 or more, aiming for a place, but obviously wanting them to win and thinking they had a chance to do so.
I had a 6/1 2nd and a 12/1 3rd in the same race.
A 7/1 3rd and 16/1 winner, which I actually did to win at 9/1, but best price guarantee ensured I got the price it drifted to.
The race where the 12/1 came third, the favourite was 9/2 and finished unplaced.
Jeer was the 16/1 winner. And I’m not claiming I did the bet because I believed he would win. I always bet on him (small just in case) as he’s a horse I follow and always try to watch.
I expected Boa to win at 5/2. As it was Jeer won fairly easily by half a length, and Boa was third.
The bigger the price the less you need to stake, or if u do stake large the more you win!
Where is the value backing a 6/4 favourite? My following examples will all be based on £10 stakes and 1/5 odds.
6/4, £10 win = £25 return.
7/1, £5 each way = £52 return for the win. Or if Placed = £12 return.
12/1, £5 each way = £82 return for the win. Or if Placed = £17 return.
So obviously the 6/4 will return more than both placed examples, as you are having £10 on win, rather than the £5 win, £5 place.
Some people think that Evens (for example) is a good price and value. It is, but only if it wins. And the lower the odds, the more you have to stake to make the return worth having.
I have done quite a few big bets. Big to me, but probably not to others, but everyone has their own financial limits and risk levels. My two biggest ever bets, were both the same stake, and both short priced favourites. The first was unplaced, and the most recent, which was actually this year won at 11/10. At the time you are buzzing, but then when you assess the return value against the amount you’ve risked I now think it’s not worth it.
Another example is the 6.50pm at Wolverhampton last Saturday…. won by a 4/6 shot. Yet there was an 8/1 third. Where is the value risking your money on such a short price to finish first. When the 8/1 each way gives you 3 chances/places of winning you some money, and obviously if it does win you win 8 times more than an odds-on will.
But then there’s the risk element of each way betting. Just because you have the option of two extra places doesn’t mean you will always get your money back or a profit. And ideally to make it worth while if they only come 2nd or 3rd u need at least 10/1. As an average the top 4 in most betting markets are 5/1 or less, so you are having to pick something out of the obvious that you think will at least place and also have a chance of winning… NOT an easy task.
I had another good each way result on Friday at Newbury… Get Me Out of Here, 2nd to Zarkander at 18/1. So basically a winner at odds of over 4/1, and there were 5 places up for grabs with Bet365…
Zarkander returned the SP favourite at 11/4… To me one of these was much better value than the other.
Comparison: Short favourites v. big price each ways today at Ffos Las.
There were 8 races on the card, and only 3 were won by the favourites (odds of 5/4, 9/4 and 2/1) in fields of 10, 10 and 14.
All 3 races had a big price placed horse (40/1, 20/1 and 14/1). Of the other 5 favourites 3 came 2nd all at odds too short for each way, and the other 2 didn’t even place.
Obviously some times, small priced favourites can be classed as value, but it’s all down to individual opinions. Some days when you see an odds-on fav in a poor race, when surely all they have to do is stand up to win, it can be tempting to pile on. I’ve been guilty of this in the past, mainly at point to points, but the thing you need to remember is in racing anything can happen. There’s no guarantees the horse won’t fall or unseat the rider, how do you know the jockey will try, or maybe the ground conditions won’t suit?
Some people can pick the right 6/4, 5/2, 13/8 etc shots that win most days of the week and make a tidy sum doing so, unfortunately I’m not one of those.
Friday just gone there was a lot of opinion that in an evening race at Kempton the jockey made no attempt to win (others views not mine, I never saw the race). By right people should have been counting their winnings before the race was even over – the horse was fancied that much. But goes to show that just when you think you’re on to a banker there’s no guarantee.
Who makes a horse a favourite? The odds compilers, and usually just based on the horses previous race. Regardless of whether up in class, distance, unsuitable ground etc…
So a select few people’s opinion determines which horse is the short priced favourite. Who’s to say their opinion is right? Plus you need to remember that in say a 10 runner race, where you are trying to pick the winner, mathematically you only have a 10% chance of winning… The odds are greatly in favour of the layers…. They’ve got 9 horses against your one!
Plus most favourites are only favourites because they won their last race… How many horses can string two or three wins together? VERY FEW.
Hopefully I have made some sense. I know in my head what I’ve been trying to explain, hopefully it comes across as such.
Thanks for taking time to read.