Not much time to do this Blog…
PLEASE NOTE this is just for reference, rather than to actually tell you what to Back or Lay.
Edit: Just as I’m completing this page Channel 4 Racing report GOING CHANGE!!! Now Soft, Good to Soft in places!
My Tent Or Yours -
6 of last 8 winners priced over 10/1.
Only 5 of 15 horses in last years Festival 3/1 or less won.
Henderson hasn’t won this race for 21 years.
Sire Milan is 0 from 7 runners at the Festival.
Not raced for over 52 days (75).
Dodging Bullets -
Also not raced for over 52 days.
- – - – -
Soft Ground winners over Hurdles: Champagne Fever / Jezki / My Tent Or Yours / Puffin Billy.
Cause of Causes won 3 of last 5 races, Sire Dynaformer currently operating at around 40%.
Trend against Overturn – too old.
Oppose the favourite, but pick a horse less that 10/1.
Jonjo O’Neill does well in Chases.
Horse than finished in first 3 last time out.
Aged 7 – 10.
Knockara Beau won 3 of 6 Soft ground Chase races.
Pete The Feat won 2 of 2 Chases at today’s Distance.
The only horse to win a Chase at this Distance on Soft ground: Summery Justice.
No horse regained this since 1975. (Rock On Ruby, Hurricane Fly, Binocular)
Not raced for over 51 Days: Cinders And Ashes, Grandouet.
Khyber Kim too old (11).
Rock On Ruby – wears headgear.
- – - – - -
Won Hurdles races on Soft Ground: Khyber Kim, Binocular & Hurricane Fly. All won at today’s Distance aswell on Soft.
Rock On Ruby in 10 Hurdles races never finished worse than 3rd.
Zarkandar won 7 of 9 hurdles races, and 2 of 3 at Cheltenham.
- – - – - – - -
OTHER STATS and TRENDS:
Sires: Oscar: Rock On Ruby, Oscar Whisky, At Fishers Cross. King’s Theatre: The New One, African Gold.
Oppose Hurders from these Stables: P.Hobbs, N.T-Davies, A.King.
When looking for winners, oppose horses with Headgear (excluding tongue ties).
Most profitable race for Irish trained runners: County Hurdle (Friday), and won 5 of last 6 runnings.
Avoid David Pipe runners in non-handicap hurdles.
Charlie Longsdon only had 1 ever Cheltenham winner, from 54.
- – - – - – - -
3.05 – Dickie Le Davour. Not a prolific winner, but form here over 6f in last 4 races: 1231.
4.25 - Shawkantango. This is one I follow, and without even looking I know he does well here. Form over today’s distance at Class 6: 112.
5.05 – Negative against Dewala. Won last 3 races here, but not won here at today’s distance in 2 attempts.
These are the prices now. I got some bigger last night, but also some were shorter last night and now bigger now.
My initial choice was Lord Buffhead, now a non runner. 2nd choice was Chateau Lola 3/1.
The favourite is still yet to win again after winning a Maiden at Leicester 2011, drops a Class today though. Lean On Pete 3/1 for me, won his last 2 races here, both with today’s jockey.
Scamperdale 25/1. As the price suggests long shot. But I’ve spotted something which makes me think maybe. The fav is odds on.
Bit unusual to me Violet Jordan only sends one horse here today: Brown Pete.
I’m staying loyal to Archie Stevens 15/8. Does look the best horse though & T.Dascombe’s only runner, plus was pulled out of an easier race yesterday at Lingfield. Although Fortinbrass could be hard to beat, ran a decent race last time at Class 4. Jim Crowley’s only ride here.
The fav Khawatim is yet to win over here (was originally in France), no decent form at all yet backed in from 9/1 to 3/1. For me Dancing Maite 20/1. Decent record here.
STAR LINKS 7/1. Before any stats, the horses last two wins: Robert Winston has been in the saddle, he is tomorrow. Last two wins the horse has wore a hood. 3 runs since he hasn’t… The hood is back on tomorrow.
All Weather form (which just happens to all be Wolverhampton) at the Distance is: 2141153411, 3 of the 5 wins being at the Class (4).
In the last 6 months no horse in this race has won a Class 4 (or above) apart from… you guessed it.
Interestingly the horse has never won on turf, from 9 tries. So his most recent poor form (last 3 runs) were all on Yielding or Heavy turf, in Ireland.
This weekend I’ll be keeping faith with horses I’ve backed before.
Today it’s Capone and True To Form, both have been #HorsePointers and both done well at Kempton. First time I chose True To Form it was after a 200+ day lay off and having first run for new trainer.
At 33/1 he finished 4th. Next time out I was on again and he finished 2nd at 20/1. Capone won at 11/2, flying home under Hayley Turner. Both do better at Kempton, but worth a small chance today for low stakes.
They are both stepping up to Listed class today from Class 3, and both at Lingfield.
Capone (8/1): All-weather form is: 35231613131361. At Lingfield only is: 53133. Won 3 of last 6 at today’s Distance.
True To Form (12/1): won 2 of 3 races at the Distance on the All-weather. Won a Class 2 in March this year at Kempton, so only stepping up 1 Class from that. Won 2 of last 3 at Distance.
Also I’m going to have a dabble on Hunt Ball (9/1) in the Paddy Power Gold Cup. 5 places each way. He’s won 3 of 4 races on Ground that’s either Soft or Good to Soft, his Chase form over the extended 2m 4f is: 111111. His biggest test to date was last time out at the Aintree Grand National meeting, where he finished 3rd in a Grade 1, today is Grade 3. He won at this year’s Cheltenham Festival which was the first time I’ve backed him.
Two for tomorrow in the Racing Post Hurdle at Cheltenham:
Yet again both up in Class, and both RISKY. The stats are there though, the only problem ‘should’ be whether they can mix it at a higher level.
Dark Lover (12/1): I put this up last time out, when a winner at Cheltenham, same jockey this time. Hurdle form at 2m 1f: 111 on Ground ranging from Soft to Good.
Hi Dancer (40/1) One of my favourite horses, and he loves going left handed over hurdles. He’s won his last 4 hurdle races at 2m 1f, also on Ground Soft to Good. Partnered by regular jockey 10lb claimer Craig Gallagher.
Both have won at Class 3, this race is Class 1 (Grade 3)
All prices this morning: Bet365
Please remember these are just my bets, caution if you take notice and invest in them. My win strike rate isn’t impressive.
To put the page in perspective:
£5 win on all 28 Selections = £50 profit.
£5 each way on all 28 Selections = £116.93 profit.
Thur 29th Nov
|The Absent Mare||7/1||12/1||8th|
Sat 24th Nov
|Goldan Jess||12/1||11/1|| 2nd
Thur 22nd Nov
Wed 21st Nov
Wed 21st Nov
Tues 20th Nov
Mon 19th Nov
|Gabrial’s King||7/1||7/2|| 2nd
|Six Of Clubs||13/2||12/1||5th|
Sat 17th Nov
|True To Form||12/1||14/1|| 5th
Fri 16th Nov
|Come on BlueChip||5/1||6/1||2nd|
Thur 15th Nov
|Koo & The Gang||9/4||9/4||4th|
Wed 14th Nov
Wed 14th Nov
Thur 8th Nov
|Layali Dubai||5/2||6/4|| WON
Wed 7th Nov
|True To Form||12/1||20/1||2nd|
Mon 5th Nov
|Decision By One||8/1||7/2||12th|
Thur 1st Nov
|True To Form||25/1||33/1||4th|
The New One 11/10. (Won) Won a Group 2 bumper in April, won a recent Class 4 novice hurdle. Won 4 of 5 races. Won a Bumper here in January.
The Jugopolist 11/2. (Unplaced) Won 1-1 on ground, won 1-1 at Distance when winning last time out in a maiden hurdle at Uttoxeter.
Domtaline 4/1. (2nd) Won both Chase races at today’s Distance. Won at a higher class than any of these. Nicholls/Walsh won this race last year.
Ixora 16/1. (Unplaced) One of only 2 horses to win on the Ground, won 1-1 at distance. Chase form: 1122.
Fox Appeal 12/1. (Unplaced) Unbeaten over hurdles on today’s Ground, winning 2-2, won 3 of 5 hurdle races.
Heaney 11/2. (3rd) Won 3 of last 4 hurdle races, won last 2 races at Distance.
Iheardu 14/1.(Unplaced) Won this race last year (same jockey on today). Won both times at Distance, including at Course. One of only 6 out of the 17 runners to win at the Class. Trainer has 43% win rate here.
Dark Lover 6/1. (Won) Won both races at Distance. Won 1-1 at Class. Unbeaten over hurdles.
Dreambrook Lady 10/1. (Unplaced) Won both hurdle races on G-S. Placed here in a Listed race earlier this year.
Chosen Character 4/1. (2nd) Won on Heavy, won 4 of last 6 at 1m, won last 3 at course, won last 2 at class, jockey won 3-5 on him.
Welliesinthewater 10/1. (NON RUNNER) Recent Course and Distance winner here. Then ran in a Group 2, finished 13 lengths behind Sir Prancealot. So big drop down in Class.
Justbookie Dot Com 5/2. (Won) Class 6 form here is: 231111. Won last 2 Sellers.
All my own work, so please RT if you use anything or find it interesting, thanks.
Struggling today… I looked at Newmarket last night, and couldn’t find anything strong there aswell. I found a strong selection in the 4.55 York, went to check price and non runner!
There’s 38 non runners at York today, so the bookies have cut a lot of prices with depleted fields, there’s 9 out in the first race alone!
Also with 2 decent days in a row trying to make it 3 in a row and on the hardest day of the week plus with added expectation = pressure.
Hard race to call, I’ve narrowed it to 3: Jamaican Bolt, Verinco, Steps. Because I can’t narrow it to one I’ll skip this race. So win or lose, I won’t be using this races result.
Bubbly Bellini 15/2. (Unplaced) I was given this in the week by @BigTajMamal, and having checked the horse today I can see why. Form on Heavy/Soft is: 31311 between 5f and 7f. Today’s race is 6f. He won 2 weeks ago at the Curragh, 6f Heavy.
River Dragon 9/2. (Unplaced) Heavy form (including hurdling): 2132411. Has won 2 of 3 Flat races on Heavy. Impressive win last week at Hexham, must of traded massive in running.
Calaf 11/2. (Unplaced) The only horse to win on Heavy at today’s Distance, at Ayr 11 days ago (Class 3). Jockey Dale Swift is 2 wins from 3 when riding, and horse has won last two races since wearing headgear… It’s on again today. Horses previous win was Class 4.
I’m not very confident today, so please don’t bet too much if you use the above selections.
A very good Thursday at Ayr, 5 winners from 7 races (none favourites). Drew a blank at Worcester though, no winners from 4 races.
When it’s wet – don’t bet!!! Be aware that the rain throws up some strange results.
York is currently described as Good to Soft, and with more rain expected over night I’m focusing on Good to Soft and allowing for even softer by tomorrow afternoon.
Bachoteque 5/1. (Unplaced) A Class 2 race, and only 1 of the 17 runners has won on a anything softer than Good at this Class. If you drop to Class 3, again there’s only 1 horse fitting this criteria… Bachoteque and it was at today’s Distance. Won his last 2 races (heavy & soft).
Osteopathic Remedy 11/1. (Unplaced) Won his last two Class 2 races at the Distance (on Good to Soft & Heavy.
No Poppy 11/1. (Won) Good to Soft form this season at today’s Distance 231, Class 3 mainly though, so up a Class today. Has raced 3 times on Soft, won all 3.
Little Rocky 3/1. (Won) Only had 1 try at today’s Class (2), finished 2nd on Soft. Other form this year is 341, the win coming on Soft at today’s Distance (Class 3). One of only 2 horses in the race to win on Soft this year. The other is one that’s won twice for us, but not at this sort of Class.
Gladiatrix 2/1. (Won) She’s won her last 3 races, 2 of them here. Latest win was on Monday by 4 lengths which was the first time trying 5f. First attempt up to Class 4 though.
Ginzan 8/1. (Unplaced) A recent C&D winner (at the Class & Distance, on G-S). Form this season at 5f: 441161. Hasn’t won on Soft though.
Please DON’T have big bets just on my say so. A good day today yes, but tomorrow’s another day. Best regards.
7.05 (Class 6 Claimer) Daddy Warbucks (11/4) won 1-1 on All-weather (at Southwell) at Class 5, won 1-1 in Claimers (at Redcar) both 7f though. Smart Affair (16/1) the only horse to win at Distance, also won at Course, won at Class.
8.05 (Class 5) Sweetnessandlight (3/1) won 2-2 at Distance, won 2-4 at Course, Class 6 though. Basantee (7/1) won 1-1 at Course, 2-6 at Distance, won at Class 4 & 5.
8.35 (Class 5) Punching (8/1) 9 times Course & Distance winner (3 at Class 5) plus 10 places from 24 races (38% win & 67% place), won on last 2 visits.
9.05 (Class 6) Carnac (5/2) 46% place at Distance, 48% place at Course including 4 wins. Cozy Tiger (7/2) won at Distance & Course. Both won at Class 5 & 6.
I’ve already done today’s Royal Ascot Pointers which are here
But I’ve also had a look at Redcar today, with Royal Ascot proving a lottery this week. I’ve researched them like normal, and then checked prices after. Unfortunately most are either favourite or second favourite. Which means short prices, but also means they “should” win.
3.20 (Class 5)
Al Furat (10/3) won & placed on Ground, won 2 of 3 at Course & won at class.
4.00 (Class 3)
Kiwi Bay (11/4) only horse to win on Ground, won at Distance, 4 x Course winner & 78% place & won at Class.
Next Edition (11/4) placed on Ground, placed all 3 runs at Distance, won & placed from 3 runs at Course.
4.35 (Class 6)
Scottish Boogie (Non-runner)
Eijazz (6/1) 24% win & 43% place on Ground, 14% win & 43% place at Distance, won twice at Course, 60% place at Class.
5.10 (Class 5)
Broctune Papa Gio (4/1) won & 43% place at Distance, 22% win & 56% place at Distance, 3 x Course winner & 56% place there, 33% win & 67% place at Class.
Outlaw Torn (10/1) won on Ground from2 runs, 20% win & 40% place at Distance, placed at Class.
All my own work, so please RT if you use anything or find it interesting, thanks.