Decent day today at Southwell, put two horses on Twitter, one won, 20/1 sp Calculating.
No big prices there for Wednesday, well not to me anyway. I’ve picked the horses as per normal and then as always price up after. Prices are Bet365 and might be slightly out of date now time I’ve done this blog, but are genuine.
I’ll write a very brief line for each, to give you a part of the reason I’ve chosen them.
If either of the 3.10, 3.45, 4.20 or 4.55 are to get beat, here’s what I think by, so Reverse Forecast:
3.10 Caldercruix / Kung Hei Fat Choy
3.45 Sewn Up / Hannah’s Turn
4.20 Rio Cobolo / Elusive Hawk
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Not much time to do this Blog…
PLEASE NOTE this is just for reference, rather than to actually tell you what to Back or Lay.
Edit: Just as I’m completing this page Channel 4 Racing report GOING CHANGE!!! Now Soft, Good to Soft in places!
My Tent Or Yours -
6 of last 8 winners priced over 10/1.
Only 5 of 15 horses in last years Festival 3/1 or less won.
Henderson hasn’t won this race for 21 years.
Sire Milan is 0 from 7 runners at the Festival.
Not raced for over 52 days (75).
Dodging Bullets -
Also not raced for over 52 days.
- – - – -
Soft Ground winners over Hurdles: Champagne Fever / Jezki / My Tent Or Yours / Puffin Billy.
Cause of Causes won 3 of last 5 races, Sire Dynaformer currently operating at around 40%.
Trend against Overturn – too old.
Oppose the favourite, but pick a horse less that 10/1.
Jonjo O’Neill does well in Chases.
Horse than finished in first 3 last time out.
Aged 7 – 10.
Knockara Beau won 3 of 6 Soft ground Chase races.
Pete The Feat won 2 of 2 Chases at today’s Distance.
The only horse to win a Chase at this Distance on Soft ground: Summery Justice.
No horse regained this since 1975. (Rock On Ruby, Hurricane Fly, Binocular)
Not raced for over 51 Days: Cinders And Ashes, Grandouet.
Khyber Kim too old (11).
Rock On Ruby – wears headgear.
- – - – - -
Won Hurdles races on Soft Ground: Khyber Kim, Binocular & Hurricane Fly. All won at today’s Distance aswell on Soft.
Rock On Ruby in 10 Hurdles races never finished worse than 3rd.
Zarkandar won 7 of 9 hurdles races, and 2 of 3 at Cheltenham.
- – - – - – - -
OTHER STATS and TRENDS:
Sires: Oscar: Rock On Ruby, Oscar Whisky, At Fishers Cross. King’s Theatre: The New One, African Gold.
Oppose Hurders from these Stables: P.Hobbs, N.T-Davies, A.King.
When looking for winners, oppose horses with Headgear (excluding tongue ties).
Most profitable race for Irish trained runners: County Hurdle (Friday), and won 5 of last 6 runnings.
Avoid David Pipe runners in non-handicap hurdles.
Charlie Longsdon only had 1 ever Cheltenham winner, from 54.
- – - – - – - -
3.05 – Dickie Le Davour. Not a prolific winner, but form here over 6f in last 4 races: 1231.
4.25 - Shawkantango. This is one I follow, and without even looking I know he does well here. Form over today’s distance at Class 6: 112.
5.05 – Negative against Dewala. Won last 3 races here, but not won here at today’s distance in 2 attempts.
A very foggy day with extremely poor visability. I’m not overly happy with a lot of these photos due to that, as I’ve had to adjust them in Photoshop to try and get rid of the fog.
Click Photos to see the whole image, and full size. Hover over Photo for Caption.
My picks for Monday’s Racing…
2.00 Madame Lillibet 5/2
2.30 Charlie’s Vic 1/3
3.40 Markadam 11/2, McMurrough 12/1
4.40 Imjoeking 5/4
1.50 Midnight Macarena 6/4
2.50 Wychwoods Brook 6/5
3.15 Bussa 11/4
4.20 Red Somerset 11/8
5.25 Scamperdale 12/1
5.55 Sewn Up 13/2
^ 8.10am: all races priced up now… The two short odds ones were picked last night, prior to being priced up this morning. 5/4 was the shortest price.
Tuesday’s betting was a disaster. I picked 3 for Southwell on here and mentioned another on Twitter.
I checked the prices in the morning and two had halved in price since I’d put them on here the night before. I was then informed Hugh Taylor (At The Races) had picked them also. So was a good confidence booster.
The results were unexpected… 4 nowheres. Not even a place! Two drifted significantly before the off, so as is 90% of the time the case, you knew they weren’t going to win before they had even left the stalls.
I watched a couple of the races (very small screen, iphone) so couldn’t see what others commented on about the newly laid fibresand running deep, and hard for the horses to get through. But to me Hellbender and Aubrietia won comfortably.
Stanley Rigby was the only one of the four picks that ever looked like having a chance of winning, and probably with a proper jockey might have done.
I did say on Tuesday’s blog that the new surface could throw up strange results. I’m not making excuses, as win or lose I always comment on the results of my selections.
When I got home from work I had another scan through some stats and tweeted the results:
Of the top 15 horses with the best win rate at Southwell today only 2 won.
Stand Guard 25%.
Based on Sire stats at the Course, 0 of the top 20 rated horses today won at Southwell.
Surely when only 6% of 35 top rated horses won it has to go down to the new surface? Seems at the moment, previous form goes out the window.
I read that some of the local trainers took some of their horses for a racecourse gallop last week, and some said the track is running slow.
Anyway on to Wednesday’s meeting
Unfortunately there’s no decent double figure prices that catch my eye.
1.30pm Minortransgression 11/4 (I’ve missed the price on this, was 9/2)
Had 8 races here, won 3, and never finished out of the first 3, 4 of the places at a Class higher. Slight negative, has a claiming jockey on board.
Elusive Warrior 6/1
Ace of Spies is in this race, after yesterday’s race I won’t be betting on him today. I’m just hoping that Tuesday’s race wasn’t a prep run for this as he’s better at 6 furlongs. 5 wins, as opposed to 1 at 7 furlongs.
Elusive Warrior’s record on a slow or standard to slow All Weather surface is: 231125. All just happen to be at Southwell!
The bad news!! That looks to be where the positives end. The horse hasn’t won at Southwell for over 2 years and in that time has been beaten 3 times here by….
Ace of Spies!
Elusive Warrior stays 7 furlongs but has never won at 6. AoS has won here 3 times at 6f, and has a 55% place rate here at that distance. So I know I said I was going to oppose him, but to me looks the more likely of the two to win. Ace of Spies 5/1.
Yet again (to me, doesn’t mean I’m right) this race looks to be between two: Caledonia Prince and Bold Marc. CP is rated 4lb above his last win and BM is 1lb below his. There’s 8lb between them in this race, BM being the lighter. Both ran in 9 furlong races at Wolverhampton recently, Caledonia Prince in a Class higher, finishing 3rd.
At Class 6 over this Course & Distance (Southwell), they both have exactly the same record: 121.
With it being a Seller there will be no prices usually until after 8am, so my advice would be to pick the one at the higher price if its over 5/1, to allow for each way betting. Or maybe do a Reverse Forecast. Something I never do, then kick myself when they come off (like 2 did on Sunday at Musselbrough, and actually in the right order).
A negative stat for anyone backing Imprimis Tagula, Natasha Eaton is 0 wins from 13 rides on the horse.
UPDATE: Prices via SkyBet: Caledonia Prince 10/3f, Bold Marc 9/2.
I’ve probably chosen the wrong one, but I’ll side with Bold Marc (win, prices too short for e/w).
I can’t recommend you actually put your money on any of the above, so entirely up to yourselves.
This doesn’t look a very inspiring meeting, as you can tell by me only mentioning 3 races. Kempton looks even less appealing as a betting opportunity. If none of those horses mentioned above win at Southwell I’ll give the place a swerve for a couple of weeks, until hopefully the surface has bedded in and previous races can then be used to hopefully provide future winners. Or maybe it’s just me!? I actually managed more winners at Musselbrough than Lingfield on Sunday.
All 3 are currently out of form, so are risky.
I’ve mentioned them purely for their record at Southwell.
Ace Of Spies 4/1.
Stanley Rigby 9/2.
Ace Of Spies: the only C&D winner. Hayley is 1-1 on the horse here.
Bandstand: won both previous races here, on winning mark.
Stanley Rigby: won 5-7 races here, 1 from 2 at today’s distance.
Please note Tuesday will be the first days racing on this new surface, so I’m guessing it will ride slow, hence could throw up strange results.
Also there will be plenty of horses trying the fibresand for the first time.
I’ve done a small Trixie e/way.
The Treble is 301/1, but most of my trebles only get 2 winners!
If you use these on my say so please only use small stakes, bet a own risk.
To put the page in perspective:
£5 win on all 28 Selections = £50 profit.
£5 each way on all 28 Selections = £116.93 profit.
Thur 29th Nov
|The Absent Mare||7/1||12/1||8th|
Sat 24th Nov
|Goldan Jess||12/1||11/1|| 2nd
Thur 22nd Nov
Wed 21st Nov
Wed 21st Nov
Tues 20th Nov
Mon 19th Nov
|Gabrial’s King||7/1||7/2|| 2nd
|Six Of Clubs||13/2||12/1||5th|
Sat 17th Nov
|True To Form||12/1||14/1|| 5th
Fri 16th Nov
|Come on BlueChip||5/1||6/1||2nd|
Thur 15th Nov
|Koo & The Gang||9/4||9/4||4th|
Wed 14th Nov
Wed 14th Nov
Thur 8th Nov
|Layali Dubai||5/2||6/4|| WON
Wed 7th Nov
|True To Form||12/1||20/1||2nd|
Mon 5th Nov
|Decision By One||8/1||7/2||12th|
Thur 1st Nov
|True To Form||25/1||33/1||4th|
7.05 (Class 6 Claimer) Daddy Warbucks (11/4) won 1-1 on All-weather (at Southwell) at Class 5, won 1-1 in Claimers (at Redcar) both 7f though. Smart Affair (16/1) the only horse to win at Distance, also won at Course, won at Class.
8.05 (Class 5) Sweetnessandlight (3/1) won 2-2 at Distance, won 2-4 at Course, Class 6 though. Basantee (7/1) won 1-1 at Course, 2-6 at Distance, won at Class 4 & 5.
8.35 (Class 5) Punching (8/1) 9 times Course & Distance winner (3 at Class 5) plus 10 places from 24 races (38% win & 67% place), won on last 2 visits.
9.05 (Class 6) Carnac (5/2) 46% place at Distance, 48% place at Course including 4 wins. Cozy Tiger (7/2) won at Distance & Course. Both won at Class 5 & 6.