Cheltenham Festival 2013 TUESDAY

Zarkandar (pink silks)

Not much time to do this Blog…
PLEASE NOTE this is just for reference, rather than to actually tell you what to Back or Lay.

Edit: Just as I’m completing this page Channel 4 Racing report GOING CHANGE!!! Now Soft, Good to Soft in places!

SUPREME NOVICES

Trends against

My Tent Or Yours -
6 of last 8 winners priced over 10/1.
Only 5 of 15 horses in last years Festival 3/1 or less won.
Henderson hasn’t won this race for 21 years.

Jezki -
Sire Milan is 0 from 7 runners at the Festival.
Not raced for over 52 days (75).

Dodging Bullets -
Also not raced for over 52 days.

- – - – -
Soft Ground winners over Hurdles: Champagne Fever / Jezki / My Tent Or Yours / Puffin Billy.
Cause of Causes won 3 of last 5 races, Sire Dynaformer currently operating at around 40%.

ARKLE

Trend against Overturn – too old.

JLT CHASE

Trends suggest:

Oppose the favourite, but pick a horse less that 10/1.

Jonjo O’Neill does well in Chases.

Horse than finished in first 3 last time out.

Aged 7 – 10.

Knockara Beau won 3 of 6 Soft ground Chase races.
Pete The Feat won 2 of 2 Chases at today’s Distance.
The only horse to win a Chase at this Distance on Soft ground: Summery Justice.

CHAMPION HURDLE

Trends Against:

No horse regained this since 1975. (Rock On Ruby, Hurricane Fly, Binocular)

Not raced for over 51 Days: Cinders And Ashes, Grandouet.

Khyber Kim too old (11).

Rock On Ruby – wears headgear.

- – - – - -
Won Hurdles races on Soft Ground: Khyber Kim, Binocular & Hurricane Fly.  All won at today’s Distance aswell on Soft.
Rock On Ruby in 10 Hurdles races never finished worse than 3rd.
Zarkandar won 7 of 9 hurdles races, and 2 of 3 at Cheltenham.

- – - – - – - -

OTHER STATS and TRENDS:

Sires: Oscar: Rock On Ruby, Oscar Whisky, At Fishers Cross.  King’s Theatre: The New One, African Gold.

Oppose Hurders from these Stables: P.Hobbs, N.T-Davies, A.King.

When looking for winners, oppose horses with Headgear (excluding tongue ties).

Most profitable race for Irish trained runners: County Hurdle (Friday), and won 5 of last 6 runnings.

Avoid David Pipe runners in non-handicap hurdles.

Charlie Longsdon only had 1 ever Cheltenham winner, from 54.

- – - – - – - -

Clubland wins

SOUTHWELL POINTERS

3.05 – Dickie Le Davour. Not a prolific winner, but form here over 6f in last 4 races: 1231.

4.25 - Shawkantango. This is one I follow, and without even looking I know he does well here. Form over today’s distance at Class 6: 112.

5.05 – Negative against Dewala.  Won last 3 races here, but not won here at today’s distance in 2 attempts.

Sat 17th & Sun 18th Nov Horse Racing

Hunt Ball – pic: Telegraph

This weekend I’ll be keeping faith with horses I’ve backed before.

Today it’s Capone and True To Form, both have been #HorsePointers and both done well at Kempton.  First time I chose True To Form it was after a 200+ day lay off and having first run for new trainer.
At 33/1 he finished 4th. Next time out I was on again and he finished 2nd at 20/1.  Capone won at 11/2, flying home under Hayley Turner.  Both do better at Kempton, but worth a small chance today for low stakes.

They are both stepping up to Listed class today from Class 3, and both at Lingfield.

Capone (8/1): All-weather form is: 35231613131361.  At Lingfield only is: 53133.  Won 3 of last 6 at today’s Distance.

True To Form (12/1): won 2 of 3 races at the Distance on the All-weather. Won a Class 2 in March this year at Kempton, so only stepping up 1 Class from that.  Won 2 of last 3 at Distance.

Also I’m going to have a dabble on Hunt Ball (9/1) in the Paddy Power Gold Cup.  5 places each way. He’s won 3 of 4 races on Ground that’s either Soft or Good to Soft, his Chase form over the extended 2m 4f is: 111111.  His biggest test to date was last time out at the Aintree Grand National meeting, where he finished 3rd in a Grade 1, today is Grade 3.  He won at this year’s Cheltenham Festival which was the first time I’ve backed him.

Two for tomorrow in the Racing Post Hurdle at Cheltenham:

Yet again both up in Class, and both RISKY. The stats are there though, the only problem ‘should’ be whether they can mix it at a higher level.

Dark Lover (12/1): I put this up last time out, when a winner at Cheltenham, same jockey this time.  Hurdle form at 2m 1f: 111 on Ground ranging from Soft to Good.

Hi Dancer (40/1) One of my favourite horses, and he loves going left handed over hurdles.  He’s won his last 4 hurdle races at 2m 1f, also on Ground Soft to Good. Partnered by regular jockey 10lb claimer Craig Gallagher.

Both have won at Class 3, this race is Class 1 (Grade 3)

All prices this morning: Bet365

Please remember these are just my bets, caution if you take notice and invest in them.  My win strike rate isn’t impressive.

Fri 22nd June – Redcar horseracing

Redcar Racecourse

I’ve already done today’s Royal Ascot Pointers which are here

But I’ve also had a look at Redcar today, with Royal Ascot proving a lottery this week.  I’ve researched them like normal, and then checked prices after.  Unfortunately most are either favourite or second favourite.  Which means short prices, but also means they “should” win.

REDCAR (Good)

3.20 (Class 5)
Al Furat (10/3) won & placed on Ground, won 2 of 3 at Course & won at class.

4.00 (Class 3)
Kiwi Bay (11/4) only horse to win on Ground, won at Distance, 4 x Course winner & 78% place & won at Class.
Next Edition (11/4) placed on Ground, placed all 3 runs at Distance, won & placed from 3 runs at Course.

4.35 (Class 6)
Scottish Boogie (Non-runner)
Eijazz (6/1) 24% win & 43% place on Ground, 14% win & 43% place at Distance, won twice at Course, 60% place at Class.

5.10 (Class 5)
Broctune Papa Gio (4/1) won & 43% place at Distance, 22% win & 56% place at Distance, 3 x Course winner & 56% place there, 33% win & 67% place at Class.
Outlaw Torn (10/1) won on Ground from2 runs, 20% win & 40% place at Distance, placed at Class.

All my own work, so please RT if you use anything or find it interesting, thanks.

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Thurs 21st June – Royal Ascot Pointers

Sir Henry Cecil & Frankel – pic: Guardian

20/1 winner yesterday (Ceiling Kitty), Evens winner and So You Think/Carlton House forecast from 6 races.

Only a quick update today, looks mainly favourites day…

ROYAL ASCOT – Thursday

2.30 – Cay Verde (3/1) & Ahern (5/1)

3.50 – The Fugue (9/4) & Hazel Lavery (33/1)

3.45 – Fame And Glory (10/11) & Opinion Poll (5/1)

4.25 – Bronze Angel (20/1) & Chapter Seven (16/1) 

5.00 – Wrotham Heath (9/2) & Crius (14/1)

5.35 – Nicholascopernicus (6/1) & Rocktherunway (20/1)

Mon 18th June – Wolverhampton Horseracing Pointers

Only 1 winner yesterday at Doncaster (5/1) and placed: 14/1, 8/1 & 3/1.

Today I’m going to try something new, concentrating entirely on combined Course + Distance & Class at Wolverhampton.  Might throw up some winners, might also be a disaster.

Lastkingofscotland – pic: H.Turner

WOLVERHAMPTON

2.00 (Class 5)
Smalljohn (5/1) 3 x C+D win.  
Hawk Moth (12/1) 2 x C+D win.

2.30 (Class 5)
Lastkingofscotland (5/1) placed all 4 times. 
Sir Bruno (9/1) won 1 of 2.

3.00 (Class 6)
One Way Or Another (7/1) won 1 & placed 4 of 5.

4.30 (Class 4)
Ring For Baileys (4/1) only C+D winner, plus placed aswell, but Class 5.

5.30 (Class 6)
Harare (5/1) 4 x C+D winner at Class 6, and C+D winner at Class 5.
The Which Doctor (13/2) C+D win & place from 3 runs.

Sat 16th June – York Pointers

Only 2 winners  (9/1 & 7/4) from 5 races at York yesterday, and no places.

On to York again today, I’ve gone in to much more depth, and some races I can’t narrow down to less than 4 with there being 20 runners, so I’ve put all the below in order I fancy them, with the first horse in each race being the main pick, but I still can’t dismiss the others. 

Some are very good prices but obviously that’s because the bookies don’t give them a chance.  Due to the number of horses selection obviously I can’t bet on them all, but I’m on 10 of them, mainly each ways. I’m not overly confident, so might be wise to save your money.  Bet at your own risk

York Racecourse

YORK (Soft)

2.05
Lexington Bay (9/1)
Veiled Applause (20/1)
Troopingthecolour (8/1)
Ascalon (33/1)

2.35
Tinshu (16/1)
Hillview Boy (7/1)

3.10
Nameitwhatyoulike (10/1)
Gabrials Lad (12/1)
Roger Sez (33/1)
Lily’s Angel (20/1)

3.45
Tullius (5/4)
(Tri-cast, which I’d chose before knowing about the non-runners: Tullius, Dance and Dance, Doncaster Rover)

York Parade Ring

4.15
Carragold (6/1)
European Dream (25/1)

5.15
Toby Tyler (8/1)
Caranbola (16/1)
Klynch (10/1)

All my own work, so please RT if you use anything or find it interesting, thanks.

Fri 15th June – York Pointers (Horse racing)

Green Howard, after winning at Catterick

3 winners yesterday from 8 races: 10/1, 2/1 & 11/8.
Placed: 6/1.

Just the one meeting today.  Not sure what to expect, ‘on paper’ some look very good and even on their last runs, but today is another day.  All the best if you use any of the below, I hope it returns a profit.

YORK (Good to Soft)

2.30 (Class 2) Eastern Destiny (4/1) & Valiant (6/4) both won 1-1 on Ground, won 1-1 at Distance.

3.05 (Class 2) Lordofthehouse (9/4) won last 2 on Ground, won 1-1 at Distance, won 4 of last 5 handicaps & won 1-1 at Class.  Merchant Of Dubai (16/1) won 3-3 on Ground, won 2 of last 3 at Distance & 42% place at Class.   Persian Peril (33/1) won 4 of last 7 on Ground, 75% place at Course.

4.10 (Class 3) 20 runners… Taurus Twins (18/1) 20% win & 60% place at Class.  Mayoman (20/1) won 2 of last 3 on Ground.  Bedloe´s Island (20/1) won 1-2 at Class.

4.45 (Class 3) 20 runners… Green Howard (7/2) won 2-2 on Ground, won last 3 at Distance.  Polar Kite (40/1) the only Course winner, won 3-4 at Class.  Lord Aeryn (9/1) 50% place at Class.

5.15 (Class 4) 18 runners… Pokfulham (9/1) 48% place in handicaps, placed at Course, 67% place at Class.  Rio’s Rosana (9/1) has an overall place rate of 54% in all races.  Royal Opera (8/1) won & placed from 2 runs on Ground.

All my own work, so please RT if you use anything or find it interesting, thanks.

Thurs 14th June – Nottingham & Newbury Pointers

Silvestre De Sousa rides at Nottingham

3 winners Wednesday from 7 races: 8/1, 5/1 & 5/1, plus 4/1 place.

No write ups, but here’s tomorrow’s Pointers done the night before to take advantage of the early prices (prices quoted are Bet 365)…

If you use the below, please only use small stakes as I’m not overly confident about them…

NOTTINGHAM (Good to Soft)
All each way unless stated

2.30 Dancing Maite 11/1

3.05 win: Big Wave 7/4, Jack Smudge 7/1

3.40 Jamarjo 9/2

5.15 Mistress of Rome 6/1

5.45 win: Cane Cat 3/1

NEWBURY (Soft)
All each way unless stated

Hayley Turner rides at Newbury

2.50 win: Derfenna Art 2/1

3.25 Inchina (Non-runner)

4.30 Shamrocked 10/1

5.05 win: Nicholascopernicus 11/8

Wed 13th June – Haydock Pointers

No Pointers yesterday, Monday’s at Pontefract produced a 5/1 winner and 11/1, 11/1 & 9/1 places.

Fenella Fudge is at Beverley today

HAYDOCK (Good to Soft)

2.20 (Class 4) Naseem Alyasmeen (5/1) placed 2-2 on Ground, 50% win & 75% place in handicaps & placed at Class.  Winner´s Wish (4/1) the only Distance winner, won 1-3 handicaps.

3.50 (Class 3) Number Theory (5/1) won & 75% place on Ground, 67% place in handicaps, won twice and 100% place at Course.  Royal Swain (20/1) won 1-1 on Ground, placed at Distance, 40% place in handicaps, placed at Class

4.20 (Class 4) Main choice is a non-runner so: Icy Blue (14/1) placed on all 3 runs at Course.

4.50 (Class 4) Kenyan Cat (3/1) placed 2-2 on Ground, 82% place at Distance & placed at Course, won & placed at Class.  St Ignatius (11/2) won 1-1 at Distance, won last 2 handicaps, won 1-1 at Course.

I’ve also have a look at BEVERLEY and I’ll highlight: Highland Warrior 4/1, Fenella Fudge 7/2, Kian’s Joy 11/4,

Mon 11th June – Pontefract Pointers

Pontefract Racecourse – pic: Allen Design

A bad week last week, so I’m going back to doing the normal style Pointers.  June hasn’t been a good month, mainly I think down to the fact it’s rained nearly everyday giving false or changing ground.

PONTEFRACT (Good)

7.20 (Class 4) Wells Lyrical (9/2) won & placed from 2 runs at Course, won 1-1 at Distance, 27% win & 55% place on Ground, placed at higher Classes, won at Class.  Saborido (9/1) won 3-4 at Distance, placed at Course.  My Arch (10/1) won & placed from 2 runs at Course, won at Class & higher Class.

7.50 (Class 3) Rafeej (15/8) the only horse to win on Good, won 2-2 left handed.  Half A Billion (11/1) placed 3-3 on Good, won & 80% Place at Distance.  No horse has won at the Class.

8.20 (Class 4) Forget Me Not Lane (4/1)  the only Ground winner, winning last 2, won 1-1 at Distance, handicap winner.  Eshaab (15/2) won 1-1 at Distance, won & placed in 2 handicaps, the only Course winner.

8.50 (Class 5) Mazovian (14/1) won & placed from 3 runs on Good, Taro Tywod (7/1) won 1-1 at Distance & won 1-1 at Class.  Mark Anthony (11/1) won 1-1 at Course.

9.20 (Class 5) Lady Kildare (16/1) 40% win & 60% place on Ground.  Master Of Disguise (9/1) 36% win & 55& place at Distance, won at higher Class.  Mr Wolf (5/1) 24% win & 56% place at Course, won at higher Class.

To people new to this page, I try to find winners or decent placed horses by narrowing the field down. I do my research first, then check prices after.