My picks for Monday’s Racing…
2.00 Madame Lillibet 5/2
2.30 Charlie’s Vic 1/3
3.40 Markadam 11/2, McMurrough 12/1
4.40 Imjoeking 5/4
1.50 Midnight Macarena 6/4
2.50 Wychwoods Brook 6/5
3.15 Bussa 11/4
4.20 Red Somerset 11/8
5.25 Scamperdale 12/1
5.55 Sewn Up 13/2
^ 8.10am: all races priced up now… The two short odds ones were picked last night, prior to being priced up this morning. 5/4 was the shortest price.
All 3 horses are 100% Course & Distance winners. (All won 2 of 2).
3.05pm Polar Venture 9/4
6.00pm Murcar 7/2
7.00pm Bassett Road 3/1
If you use any of these selections, please use small stakes. Bet at own risk etc…
As for the Giffgaff advert, Giffgaff is O2′s online only network, ie no call centre or shops = very cheap monthly deals and NO CONTRACT, not even 30 days rolling.
I use them myself, it basically is just like being on O2.
£5 FREE credit if you order your sim via the advert above when you activate.
These are the prices now. I got some bigger last night, but also some were shorter last night and now bigger now.
My initial choice was Lord Buffhead, now a non runner. 2nd choice was Chateau Lola 3/1.
The favourite is still yet to win again after winning a Maiden at Leicester 2011, drops a Class today though. Lean On Pete 3/1 for me, won his last 2 races here, both with today’s jockey.
Scamperdale 25/1. As the price suggests long shot. But I’ve spotted something which makes me think maybe. The fav is odds on.
Bit unusual to me Violet Jordan only sends one horse here today: Brown Pete.
I’m staying loyal to Archie Stevens 15/8. Does look the best horse though & T.Dascombe’s only runner, plus was pulled out of an easier race yesterday at Lingfield. Although Fortinbrass could be hard to beat, ran a decent race last time at Class 4. Jim Crowley’s only ride here.
The fav Khawatim is yet to win over here (was originally in France), no decent form at all yet backed in from 9/1 to 3/1. For me Dancing Maite 20/1. Decent record here.
To be run, as a one off, on Wednesday 28th November.
Who gets the biggest combined odds (same as an accumulator, except you don’t need all your horses to win here, but obviously that’s what you are aiming for) from their selections is crowned the winner. So you can play it safe with short prices and hope most win, or go larger and maybe only need two or three winners. Choice is yours.
Thank you to WILLIAM HILL for kindly donating a Free £25 Bet for the winner.
You have a 2/1 winner, a 5/1 winner and 10/1 winner = 197/1 Treble
Two winners 4/1 and 3/1 = 19/1 Double
Four winners 4/6, 2/1, 5/4, 7/2 = 49/1 Accumulator
& obviously only one winner = single at whatever odds it was.
The 6 Races we are going to use are:
LINGFIELD 1pm, 1.30pm
WOLVERHAMPTON 1.40pm, 3.20pm
KEMPTON 4.30pm, 6pm
ONE horse per race, and WIN Only.
What’s in it for you
Other than the £25 FREE BET courtesy of William Hill and the Official Frankel DVD courtesy of myself….
Last times tips pages were retweeted many, many times, so you get exposure, maybe more followers and the pleasure of winning if you choose the right horses. Plus it’s good to compare with other people, and all on one page makes this much easier.
DEADLINE for Entries is 10.30am Tomorrow (Wed). But would be good if the majority were entered by tonight please.
To SUBMIT YOUR ENTRY: Copy and Paste the part highlighted below in Green, then just replace with your horses. Horse names in CAPITALS please. I can then copy and paste this myself as your entry. Send to my Twitter: @MartWes
1.00pm L SEA THE STARS
1.30pm L FRANKEL
1.40pm W DENMAN
3.20pm W SHERGAR
4.30pm K RED RUM
6.00pm K DESERT ORCHID
Winning prices will be based on SP’s.
Competition open to everyone who Follows me. You will be able to find the list of races/horses on At The Races, Racing Post, Sporting Life etc…
Use your Smart Phone for only £12 a month & NO CONTRACT with UNLIMITED web & txts plus 250 mins. http://giffgaff.com/orders/affiliate/martinwes < £5 free with this link.
STAR LINKS 7/1. Before any stats, the horses last two wins: Robert Winston has been in the saddle, he is tomorrow. Last two wins the horse has wore a hood. 3 runs since he hasn’t… The hood is back on tomorrow.
All Weather form (which just happens to all be Wolverhampton) at the Distance is: 2141153411, 3 of the 5 wins being at the Class (4).
In the last 6 months no horse in this race has won a Class 4 (or above) apart from… you guessed it.
Interestingly the horse has never won on turf, from 9 tries. So his most recent poor form (last 3 runs) were all on Yielding or Heavy turf, in Ireland.
To put the page in perspective:
£5 win on all 28 Selections = £50 profit.
£5 each way on all 28 Selections = £116.93 profit.
Thur 29th Nov
|The Absent Mare||7/1||12/1||8th|
Sat 24th Nov
|Goldan Jess||12/1||11/1|| 2nd
Thur 22nd Nov
Wed 21st Nov
Wed 21st Nov
Tues 20th Nov
Mon 19th Nov
|Gabrial’s King||7/1||7/2|| 2nd
|Six Of Clubs||13/2||12/1||5th|
Sat 17th Nov
|True To Form||12/1||14/1|| 5th
Fri 16th Nov
|Come on BlueChip||5/1||6/1||2nd|
Thur 15th Nov
|Koo & The Gang||9/4||9/4||4th|
Wed 14th Nov
Wed 14th Nov
Thur 8th Nov
|Layali Dubai||5/2||6/4|| WON
Wed 7th Nov
|True To Form||12/1||20/1||2nd|
Mon 5th Nov
|Decision By One||8/1||7/2||12th|
Thur 1st Nov
|True To Form||25/1||33/1||4th|
Only 1 winner yesterday at Doncaster (5/1) and placed: 14/1, 8/1 & 3/1.
Today I’m going to try something new, concentrating entirely on combined Course + Distance & Class at Wolverhampton. Might throw up some winners, might also be a disaster.
2.00 (Class 5)
Smalljohn (5/1) 3 x C+D win.
Hawk Moth (12/1) 2 x C+D win.
2.30 (Class 5)
Lastkingofscotland (5/1) placed all 4 times.
Sir Bruno (9/1) won 1 of 2.
3.00 (Class 6)
One Way Or Another (7/1) won 1 & placed 4 of 5.
4.30 (Class 4)
Ring For Baileys (4/1) only C+D winner, plus placed aswell, but Class 5.
5.30 (Class 6)
Harare (5/1) 4 x C+D winner at Class 6, and C+D winner at Class 5.
The Which Doctor (13/2) C+D win & place from 3 runs.
A decent day yesterday 3 winners (10/1, 4/1, 3/1) from 7 races/9 horses.
Win = 42%, Place 33%.
HAMILTON (Good to Firm)
3.00 (Class 6) Sandwith (11/4) placed on 6 of last 7 on G-F, won last 2 at Distance, 32% Place in handicaps, won & placed at Course and won last 2 at Class, with 42% Place.
3.30 (Class 5) Silly Gilly (9/2) won & 52% Place on G-F, 48% Place at Distance, 33% Place at Class.
4.00 (Class 5) Legal Eagle (13/2) won 2-2 at Course, won & placed on Ground.
LINGFIELD (Good to Soft)
2.50 (Class 6) Benandonner (4/7) won & placed on Ground, the only horse to win at Distance, 57% win & 71% place at Class.
3.20 (Class 5) Cristal Gem (25/1) won & placed at Distance & placed at Class.
SANDOWN (Good to Soft)
6.50 (Class 4) Italian Tom (9/1) won 3-3 at Course, 40% win on Ground, 29% win at Distance & won last 2 at Class.
2.40 (Class 5) Midas Moment (7/2) 40% win on All weather, won at Distance, won 2-3 at Course, won & placed at Class.
3.10 (Class 5) Zain Princess (7/1) 40% win & 60% place on All weather, 50% win & 75% place at Distance (all at Course), won & placed at Class.
3.40 (Class 6 Claimer) Redair (5/2) won last 3 at Course, won 2 of last 3 Claimers
Thanks for taking time to look. Yesterday’s pointers returned 10% win rate, 33% place rate.
Please note these are just pointers, NOT saying to bet on them just on my say so…
All my own work, so please RT if you use anything below or find it interesting:
What a strange day yesterday. Across England and Scotland there were 36 races and only 6 favourites won (4 odds-on).
In form trainer Derek Shaw (last 14 days: 3 winners, 1 2nd 3 3rds from 15 runners) has 6 runners today, 4 at Nottingham & 2 at Wolverhampton.
Frankel’s full brother (Noble Mission) makes his 2nd racecourse appearance today, 1.30 Newbury. (11/4)
6.15 Wolverhampton Welcome Approach, 6 times C&D, 4 more than others in that race. (6/1)
Roger Varian sends 1 runner to Wolverhampton, 8.15, Sound Hearts, has 100% record there with Callan onboard, 1-1. (5/1)
4.35 Ayr Kings Grey has placed on his last 6 times, 5 as 2nd. (9/1)
3.10 Newbury Bronterre – Richard Hannon had 4 winners since Wednesday (All Newmarket), and won this 3 of last 5 runnings. (4/6)
3.10 Newbury None of the Greenham runners have won on Soft.
3.25 Ayr (Scottish Grand National) Merigo has 57% win rate, 100% place rate at this course from 7 races, and won this in 2010. (13/2)
John Dunlop sends just the 1 horse to Thirsk, Korngold, 5.00. Round trip of 560 miles. (9/4)
Philip Makin is 5 wins for 9 rides for John Dunlop… rides Korngold.
3.15 Thirsk Dubai Dynamo is 6lb below last win, and won this time last year at this course. Currently on long losing run though. (11/1)
Thanks for taking time to read my Blog today.
My only bet so far today is Final Drive (3.30pm Wolv.), which is 25/1
His recent form of 34789 won’t inspire much confidence, but my case for Final Drive (each way) if you go in-depth is:
- He has won 2 of his three Class 2 Races (today is William Hill Lincoln Trial Handicap (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-105) Winner £18,675), which is more successful in this Class than the other runners in today’s race. Although Mia’s Boy has won once at Class 1.
- He has a 60% win and place rate at Wolverhampton, from 5 races. The highest Wolverhampton win rate of all the other runners.
- He has been placed 8 times from 13 at a mile, and won 3 from 5 at an extended mile.
- 13 runners in today’s race… His record in 13 runner races is: won 2, and 3rd once.
- Ran in 29 handicap races, record: 33% win rate, 54% place.
- Is 3lb lower than his highest win.
- All weather record: 8 wins from 24 races, 33%.
- He has not been seen on a race course since this race last year (finished 9th) and is with a new trainer for today’s race. The trainer John Butler had a winner last night at Wolverhampton…
Obviously it’s a tough race, but based on the above that I’ve researched this morning, 25/1 seems big, and worth an each way chance.
Other than Final Drive, I’d like to see Loyalty win for Derek Shaw Racing.
This is only my take on the race, I could be totally wrong. So if you take any notice of the above, please don’t bet big, and remember that gambling is much more in the favour of the bookmakers…
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Also in the William Hill Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton, bottom weight Kingscroft, has only ever had 2 races in March…. Won Both! One at Wolverhampton. Is also 2 wins from 4 races here.
Loyalty‘s form at Wolverhampton: 41223112 (38% win, 88% place)