The main race of the day is the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster 3.50pm, with £113,000 to the winner, and all 10 runners are Irish-bred.
Andrea Atzeni has only ever had 3 rides in this race, all in the past 3 consecutive years. All won. Unsurprisingly this year, O’Brien and Moore have the favourite, but Evens??? Aidan hasn’t won the race since 2012, and Ryan has ridden in it 3 times and was unsuccessful on all occasions. The fav does have a good record in this race though, winning 7 of the last 9 runnings. But I just feel this horse shouldn’t be that short. He’s only won one race, and he beat Taj Mahal! A horse who couldn’t even win a class 5 at Newmarket. It was in a good time, but other than that… I can’t see much else, other than he finished behind the would be fav for this race, Capri, who wasn’t declared.
Something has to come 2nd and 3rd (and might even win), so that’s the play I’m opting for and it’s THE ANVIL 16/1 each way. He’s had 4 races, all at today’s 1 mile distance and has finished 2nd or 3rd every time, including here when he was beaten a neck in a class 3. He first caught my eye at Newmarket in the Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2), when 2nd at 25/1. He then ran in Autumn Stakes (Group 3) where he didn’t show the same turn of foot which to me looked ground related. Seamie Heffernan is back on today, and the ground could do with drying out.
Both Yuctan and The Anvil are sired by Galileo, who has won this race once (Kingsbarns, 2012), from 9 progeny runs. That’s 11% win rate, so I’d much rather have a go at a 16/1 than a ‘double your money’.
Quite surprised when I checked O’Brien’s course record for the past 5 years: 5 wins from 34 runners (14%). All in all, I spent a lot of time looking at this race, and couldn’t see anything that stood out head and shoulders above the rest.
System 1 – 10f only, class, age etc…
Last 10 form: 6211222101
7.40pm MERCY ME 5/1 & NEW RECORD 6/1
System 2 – 2yr-old only, Sire & Trainer
Last 10 form: 1211116121
(Please note: biggest winner of the last 10 = 5/1 sp)
5.30pm VERDI 50/1
6.05pm QUEEN CELESTE 16/1
Well… Thursday got off to the perfect start – KATEBIRD winning easily at 9/2.
Then after that were the System Bets… You know there’s always a close 2nd? Yeh happened again… Other than that the rest were shite, including 14/1 into 9/2 – finished about eighth, and 11/4 into 11/8!
The run of the Systems producing at least one winner a day is over 😏 = a loss on the day.
Awfaa might be worth keeping an eye on… Not saying it was only there for a run round though! 😶
In between you may have seen me tweet:
So that’s now the Eyecatchers been ripped off and the Course/Jockey/Trainer/Sire stats… 👀 not impressed.
Not much doing today… and I haven’t spent nowhere near as much time as usual on this… helped by me having the below system already set up…
Last 10 form: 1131111212
+ quick comment
6.20pm LUDUAMF (dropped 4 furlongs) 10/1
6.50pm DRAW SWORDS (dropped a class) 10/3
FYI, looking at Newbury, Roger Varian could be having a dabble:
1.20pm UAE KING (Frankel) 3/1 in to 2/1f
1.50pm YALAWIN (cost 75,000G) 11/2 in to 7/4f
2.25pm COMMANDER (Frankel – cost 670,000G) 11/4 in to 7/4f
There’s an Eyecatcher at Newbury as well, but up a class and 2 furlongs in a 16 runner race… Form of her win not working out too… So I’ll give it a miss…
If you want another Frankel progeny, there’s one at Doncaster:
3.10pm MIRAGE DANCER (Derby entry) 11/4.
Mr Varian sends a horse I’ve been on the last 3 times, and put on here twice, to Dundalk… Looks a hard race and plenty of runners, 7.35pm DOUBLE UP 7/1.
As it stands, this is a rare occasion where I have not had a bet. Not really in the mood… All the best if you have a go.