The main focus of the day was on York, but as always, there was racing elsewhere too…
CARLISLE 2.45pm 6 Furlongs, Class 5.
RACEMAKER (Stimulation) 50/1, OR74
Having watched this race I can’t believe this horse went off 50/1, and let alone considering he had previously won his last two, when in the care of Mick Channon.. Yes they were both sellers, but 50/1? In this race, he finished 2nd to the odds-on son of Frankel, Senator who won last time out at Leicester in impressive fashion. Senator had a near 2 length start on Andy’s Crooks colt today, and Racemaker was only beaten by the same distance, after taking off entering the final furlong, receiving 7lb. One to keep eye on on next time out, over 6 or 7 furlongs, or looking at his breeding, could even get further.
5.05pm 9 Furlongs, Class 5.
CHISWICK BEY (Elusive City) 10/3f, OR70
Not really sure why this was running over 9f when previous wins have been at 6 and 7… Could it be because he’s 5lb above his last win?! Last 6 wins have come under an apprentice jockey.
ARTFUL PRINCE (Dutch Art) 8/1, OR70
Top weight of 10 stone, and was kept out the back and finished well, just out of the places. Last few wins have been with Joe Doyle, but when he was claiming 3lb. All wins have been over 9 or 10f. Might have been on a going day today, as was beaten 40 lengths prior, at Newmarket, with Paul Mulrennan onboard…
TAOPIX (Rip Van Winkle) 28/1, OR48
Had to give this one a little mention after a fast finishing 3rd. He will continue to go off at big prices, due to being with a small trainer. On this run there’s more ability than a horse rated a lowly 48, and he cost 90,000 Guineas as a foal. Could be worth a go on an artificial surface, as the dam is USA-bred.
YORK 3.05pm 1m4f Group 2.
HOUSESOFPARLIAMENT (Galileo) 6/1, OR105
How did Idaho win that? Found top gear late in the day but eventually reeled all his rivals in. If you were betting in this race, this was the only horse you could have invested in… He has 3 times finished 2 lengths within the Derby and Irish Derby winner Harzand! So surely you have to mark up Housesofparliament’s performance.
3.40pm (Juddmonte International) Group 1.
MUTAKAYYEF (Sea The Stars) 15/2, OR 118
The only horse to take of this race, his first try at the top level. Travelled 7th for most of the race and was only beaten just over 2 lengths by Postponed, even though the favourite for the Arc got first run and a 4-5 length lead. Has had 12 races and never finished worse than 3rd!! Some record.
4.45pm 6 Furlongs, Class 2.
THE WAGON WHEEL (Acclamation) 13/2, OR72
Impressive winner of a big field nursery that Richard Fahey also won last year with Mayfair Lady. The Wagon Wheel was receiving a lot of weight but is now 2 from 2, having previously won over 5f at Beverley.
Thanks for looking… This was a blog I used to spend a lot of time on with daily updates… but November 2013 saw me stop updating, and instead I just posted my thoughts briefly, straight on Twitter. It started off stats-based, and was predominantly ‘Pointers’, then I started to choose a few and give reasoning why… Resulting in plenty of winners over 20/1.
Then September last year, I added a couple of posts, and here nearly a year on here’s another… to start of with something a bit different, EYECATCHERS…
Horses, that in my opinion, aren’t far off winning a race. I will give my reasoning and also some background info behind each horse.
2.15pm 6 Furlongs, Class 4.
KOROPICK (Kodiac) 3/1
Won this effortlessly first time out, on the bridle for most of the race and by 4 lengths, eased down. Should follow up if not upped in grade drastically.
Entered at the Curragh & Middle Park (Group 1) in September.
DAKOTA GOLD (Equiano) 25/1
Was up the rail with nowhere to go, then blocked again when making an effort. Had to find another route, wide, finishing 3rd. Very promising first run.
Entered in two big races, 10th October.
3.15pm 7 Furlongs, Class 5.
POPSIE’S JOY (Alfred Nobel) 4/1, OR68
Finished a clear 2nd, no chance with winner, and had more left. Previous distance winner at Beverley, 20/1, OR63.
3.45pm 5 Furlongs, Class 4.
SILVANUS (Danehill Dancer) 15/2, OR85
Only horse to take from this race. Under heavy restraint, eventually given some rein, and only beaten 3 lengths. 9lb below last winning mark.
4.45pm 12 Furlongs, Class 6.
HIGH ON LIGHT (Makfi) 11/4f, OR65
Entering the home straight this filly, who had won her last two races, was around 10 lengths down and had to switch off the rail to find an open passage, finishing very quickly, and although not winning, was still a very good run. The winner had moved stables and won on first run for new trainer, after having some market support! Although a mile and a half looks High On Light’s ideal trip, based on this run, she still could get a further I feel.
L’APOGEE (Rip Van Winkle) 10/1, OR57
A maiden still who was stepped up in trip 3 furlongs for this race. Would be much better over 10f, as was bang there cruising til the 2 pole, before struggling and staying on for 4th. Mr Fahey is bound to find a race and a win for this one.
5.15 1 Mile, Class 4.
TRINITY STAR (Kheleyf) 10/1, OR77
Beaten 6.5 lengths after never being asked for an effort, and tucked in towards the rail 1 furlong from the line. Could easily have finished a lot nearer the front if there was assistance in the saddle. Last winning mark is 75 and last 2 wins were at Ponte… Could be being primed.
WOODY BAY (New Approach) 12/1, OR80
Beaten just over 3 lengths. Was pressed hard but responded all the way. Was top weight carrying 10 stone (minus valuable claimer Nathan Evans’ 5lb). Shouldn’t be that far away from being in the winners’ enclosure.
5.45 6 Furlongs, Class 6.
TRIBESMAN (Equiano) 9/2, OR60
Has only ever won once, when with David Brown up at Musselburgh, now in the care of Marjorie Fife. Having being beaten only 2.5 lengths in this ladies’ amateur race, he definitely showed enough to being capable of winning in the near future.
REFLATION (Stimulation) 20/1, OR53
Ex-Richard Hannon horse, now in Dodds’ daughters name and she has become the regular ‘pilot’. In this race Reflation basically did his own thing and was only just over 3 lengths from finishing 3rd. Once there’s a proper jockey onboard we should (if on the right day) see a win. Only previous win was for Hannon rated 63, with Gary Mahon claiming 5lb.
3.50 This looks a battle between the Sea The Stars colt and filly. I’ve opted for the filly, trained by William Haggas, who has a very good record here with 49% of his runners finishing in the first 3. Sealife, who cost 125,000 Euros ran well last time at Beverley closing all the way to the line, and takes a step up in trip today. Her last race was at the same level as today, Class 2, where as her 4 rivals are all stepping up in class. Her main rival Star Storm won last time out beating a subsequent winner, but only at Class 5, and he’s stepping up half a mile this time around, but does receive 6lb from the selection.
4.20 I’m not one to usually put up odds-ons, but when they stand out this much it’s hard to ignore. Music Master has recently ran in consecutive Group 1’s, at Royal Ascot and York, and takes a massive drop down in class this time around, to Class 3! The last time he faced horses of this calibre was April 2014, and he won. If you look at his Nunthorpe run, he finished behind: Mecca’s Angel, Acapulco. Mattmu, Sole Power, Muthmir…. the list goes on!
MUSIC MASTER 10/11
4.50 Of the trainers in this race, Chris Wall has the best record at Yarmouth in the last 5 years. He runs a daughter of Exceed and Excel, Belvoir Diva in this and it’s his only runner all day! George Baker takes the ride on this hold up performer, and that’s what George excels at. Belvoir Diva has only had 4 races, winning once, at Kempton. Her run two races back was at Wolverhampton, and you could say she disappointed and was eased home. Her recent run was a lot more promising though, at Haydock over 6f, and she was on the bridle for nearly 5f. She drops down to 5f today.
BELVOIR DIVA 11/4
3.40 A horse with form figures of 279800: Was ran over an inadequate trip last time and at a level he’s never won at. Both of those concerns are resolved today. Also back down to a rating of 84, the one he last won off. Even his last race the nowhere isn’t a true reflection. It was an apprentice handicap and he travelled in the rear throughout, but still tried, beaten only 7 lengths at 33/1. Keniry takes over and his last 3 rides for Baker has resulted in 2 winners. The ground is a concern though.
One that will handle soft is Port Lairge, who had trouble in running at Brighton over 6f, but ran on well to get 2nd. A furlong further here should suit and Tom Marquand takes over. A big plus in my view! Then you take in to account he has a 30% win rate at Chepstow. The 5-year-old Pastoral Pursuits gelding is 7lb above his last win, which he could get away with as there’s only two well handicapped horses in the race, and we’re on one of them!
AQUA ARDENS 16/1
PORT LAIRGE 11/2
6.15 Mercer’s Row has not long since joined Michael Herrington and was an impressive winner at Beverley a week ago. Should hopefully be able to follow up at a course he’s won twice at previously. Rob Hornby rides and his 5lb allowance virtually removes the 6lb penalty.
MERCER’S ROW 7/2
6.45 Mr Herrington also has one in this race, ridden by Robert Winston. Ran at Newcastle last time and wasn’t asked for maximum effort and was in a race with excessive distance prior to that. Yet to win for Herrington, but was previously with Johnny G and owned by Sheikh Mo’s wife, so must have some ability. His best recent run came at Wetherby when he chased home Harwoods Volante, and a stride further and he would have won (good to firm). Could figure here if things fall right.
TWIN POINT 8/1
2.00 There are 6 unraced sorts in this race, so they could be anything, but Muntazah should be the first of Barry Hills & Paul Hanagan Hamdan’s double. First time out, he finished a head behind the Hamdan first colours of Manafidh, who ran in a Ascot Listed race and more recently finished 4 lengths behind Highclere’s Foundation. Impressive in itself, but in his second race, the Dubawi colt finished 3 lengths behind the Queen’s Recorder and wasn’t given a hard time that day. The race produced plenty of next time winners. He’s had 6 weeks rest and looks the very likely winner to me.
2.30 Should see the previous races connections back in the winners enclosure. Fawaareq drops 2 classes from a York maiden last time out. A recent race that has already produced a subsequent couple of winners. In his first race he finished close to Justice Law who then won his next race and was just touched off last week.
3.00 A Seller! If you really have to get involved in this bad race, Mr Charlton’s Bitter Orange looks the likely winner to me, at a course he does well at. Favourite Canford Kilbey will probably be all the rage. Bitter Orange was given a lowly mark of 45, after basically having a day out last time. First time visor this time round and a change of jockey.
BITTER ORANGE 9/1
4.00 Favourite Justice Day stands out immediately. Ran in the Group 1 Nunthorpe and is dropped to this Class 3. Top pilot on board, but the trainer yet to have a winner here.
So again, it’s Roger Charlton, the man to go to. Although Cam Hardie is on and I think he’s, I will be polite, and say I don’t rate him highly. As for the horse, Zeb Un Nisa, who receives weight from all her rivals, in April she finished close to Waady in a class 2, then in May, 3 lengths behind Clive Cox’s Profitable, who has since ran in the Nunthorpe and finished in front of Justice Day. Then you look back to Profitable’s Listed win, in which Zeb Un Nisa was 4th, splitting them was Tendu (ran at Royal Ascot, Group 1 afterwards) and Strath Burn (who nearly caught Twilight Son at the weekend at Haydock, Group 1).
Looks good form to me.
ZEB UN NISA 9/2
4.35 Kakatosi ran poorly last time but has met the selections before and is better weighted with both now.
Firmdecisions, Ivory and Winston’s only reason for leaving the house, ran in the Stewards Cup, in which Magical Memory won. Was 50/1 that day and was eased near the finish when it was clear he wasn’t getting anywhere near the places. That day from a handicap perspective he was the worst horse in the race. With a drop in Class here, he’s now the best horse. Take A Note won this last year and ran a good race at Kempton three weeks ago, finishing a close third. Only 3lb higher this year to try and keep his crown. Also worth a mention, in the last 5 years trainer Patrick Chamings has only ever been to Leicester once: last years race!
TAKE A NOTE 7/1
5.35 Apprentice Handicap. A couple I rate and some I haven’t heard of, any way… Top weight Glennten, is a horse who always runs well and after a couple of successive wins earlier this year is now down to a mark not beyond him. Handles the ground, and at Class 6 has a high place rate.
Favourite Monopoli is a course specialist, but usually in sellers or claimers, but was only just touched off last time here in a handicap. So maybe a win isn’t beyond him in this.
1.30 Billy Red 7/1
A decent price considering he’s the only horse in the race to have won last time out. Excluding that run, the time before when he managed to get his head in front, he was rated 68, he followed up rated 72. On two of those three wins he was partnered by Joe Fanning, who takes the ride again this time round. His win at the start of this month was off 67 and is back up to 72. Up an extra furlong now but the further they went last time the more on top he became and has won 7 times at 6 furlongs. Fanning’s last 4 rides for this trainer have resulted in 2 winners and 2 2nds.
2.35 Lowther 7/1
Has won 4 times this calendar year, and all stepping up a furlong in trip from the previous success. It’s a hard race to call, and a negative that he’s effectively raised 4lb with Oisin Murphy not riding. Has only raced twice at today’s distance, winning one, at the trainers local course. Two runs back Lowther finished 2 lengths behind today’s favourite Marshgate Lane receiving 1lb, it’s 3lb this time around.
3.10 The Wonga Coup 8/1 now, but I got 20/1.
A very speculative pick, but at 20/1 each way was worth a go. Finished very well last time at Kempton after not running since August. Looked like further would suit, and gets 2 furlongs more this time, and has won 3 of last 6 at this distance. Receives weight from most rivals, is a lb lower than last win but hasn’t won at Lingfield before.
All 3 are hard races, so more likely to place than win.
Following on from the earlier Wolverhampton Blog, some more horses that might be winners, same again more hopefully than counting my money already.
LONG SHOTS / OUTSIDERS All Each Way
1.25 SASKIA’S DREAM 25/1
Dropped a Class from last time out when finishing 7 lengths behind Jay Bee Blue. Won 2 of 3 AW races at Lingfield, both a Class higher than today and off higher handicap marks. First time at Class 6.
– West Leake 16/1 worth a mention, but I’ve tried to narrow each race to one horse.
2.00 YOUNG DOTTIE 20/1
7 year old mare who has won this race 2 out of the last 3 years, so you would think today has been her main target for this year. Won 3 and placed twice from 11 races at mile. The favourite is the hype horse, being trained by Mr Haggas, but at 7/4? No thanks.
2.35 PICANSORT 12/1
Won 2 of last 3 C&D races latest one being in April (at today’s class from 3lb lower). Has placed in more races than not in the past 12 months.
3.10 BABY DOTTIE 14/1
Finished 4th here last time in an apprentice handicap. Dropped a furlong and 1lb this time. Has finished in the first 3 the last 7 times she’s been on today’s rating.
I haven’t found anything that looks solid, and these are more hopeful than anywhere near certs. I’ve had a couple of quid on them though just incase (mainly in multiples).
Out of form (like myself) Horses, but will win again one day, just a case of when, maybe today:
7.20 JAWAAB 10/1
8.20 SEWN UP 14/1
9.20 JEER 7/1
Local trainer Andrew Hollinshead could/might have a good night:
7.20 LACEY 5/1
8.20 SEWN UP 14/1
8.50 BILASH 7/1
9.20 WELL OWD MON 10/1
In the 7.20 if SERGEANT PINK can show his Chase form on the All Weather 9/1 looks decent. Horse only ever ran once on all weather though.
PRIMACY 25/1 – Total long shot, will probably finish last, but a 4 year old who has only had 4 races. last two well beaten at Chepstow, both at 100/1. Very very small sample size, but her Sire is 2 from 2 at Wolverhampton. Trainer in form.