Sat Racing – Newmarket, Ascot & Redcar

September 30, 2016 Comments off
doubleup

DOUBLE UP

Three runners Friday, 5/1, 13/2, 7/1. Finishing: 2nd, 3rd, 3rd. Highly frustrating. As always my money was on, but win only. Taopix & Roman De Brut both given a LOT to do with wide draws, but even then both jockeys were happy to sit 2nd last & 3rd last. At least give ’em a chance! Plus, I know Rachel Richardson gets winners, but whenever I back her she’s shite.

I have now watched the two from Thursday night that I couldn’t watch live: Multi Quest, not the same horse as previous race. Keep Up Kevin, pretty much the same.

Saturday 1st October
2.30pm Ascot
DURETTO 12/1 – An Eyecatcher last time at the dog track, but this looks a big step up in class. Is a two-time C&D winner though, plus two 2nds from only 4 tries here and Fortune one-from-one onboard and hasn’t ridden the son of Manduro since 2014. But was hoping for something more realistic class wise.

4.35pm Newmarket
DAKOTA GOLD 25/1 – won for us at Hamilton and was a no show in the race at Ayr afterwards. Has been entered in this race (the easier one) and the race below at Redcar a long time, so obviously the main target this season.

4.15pm Ascot
DOUBLE UP 9/2 – Been on him the last twice, and both times slow away, costing him the win, but still finished like a train to be not far off. Shouldn’t have that problem here, just a case of being good enough on the day. Also a previous C&D. One advantage now being that Atzeni doesn’t ride today! He seems to like to employ the Spencer tactic of ‘leave it as late as you can before you stoke him up’, giving the horse a mountain to climb. Tylicki does ride though:two wins & a 2nd from three rides aboard the Exceed And Excel gelding. AA: one win from eight on him!

3.15pm Redcar Two-Year Old Trophy
THE WAGON WHEEL 11/1 – Shit odds, should be 20/1. Could be worse though: the 5/1f has never won & been turned over at 1/2f. The Wagon Wheel ran a screamer at York, then a strange race when put up on here, at Goodwood. Could have been she never handled the track. Won’t have that excuse here at Redcar. Another horse that has been entered in this race weeks in advance.

Fri 30th Sept – Newcastle

September 30, 2016 Comments off

Three runners yesterday and not even a place, expected more than that, at least 😑. Only saw Popsie’s race, so can’t really comment other than drop Popsie’s Joy needs a drop in trip, she’s not getting home…?

⭕️ Three Eyecatchers today, all that have ran before, but one we haven’t seen for a month… They just happen to be the first three consecutive races on the Newcastle card! Chances of that?!

5.20pm Newcastle
TAOPIX 5/1 – unfortunately not 25/1 again today! Won at the first time of asking on this blog in very impressive fashion here at Newcastle.  Has had plenty of time to recover as that was 26th August, also a Friday.  He has been entered a couple of times since, but never declared. Goes up 2 furlongs in distance today, which if you saw the last run, could/should suit. My resources are limited as still not at home, so can’t delve deeper and access any stats. Gone up 6lb for the win, but drops into class 6 company. The horse who finished 3rd that day, Cape Crystal, came out and won a week ago at Wolverhampton, see below for the 2nd’s last run:

5.50pm Newcastle
ROMAN DE BRUT 13/2 – led most of the way last time at Chelmsford, before fading in the straight, beaten less than 3 lengths.  Back to Newcastle today, where he was pipped on the line by Taopix in his previous run… Bad news now being, the 4-year-old son of Rock Of Gibraltar is now 11lb higher than his last win, at Wolverhampton, so at least they’re both Tapeta. Luke Morris retains the ride.

6.20pm Newcastle
HIGH ON LIGHT 7/1 – drops half a mile in trip (won at 10f previously, at Ayr) and a class (4 to 5) and still gets to be bottom-weight. A very consistent daughter of Makfi, with recent form of 611222. Chased home a William Haggas-trained Galileo filly last time at Musselburgh (who is now entered in an Ascot Listed race) and I feel could she finished closer, if the need had arisen. 

🏇 Thanks for looking. If you like what you see or invest in them, comments & RT’s are appreciated. 👍🏼 @MartWes

Thurs 29 Sept – Newcastle & Chelmsford

September 28, 2016 Comments off

Tomahawk Kid

Haven’t had much time since Saturday to do lots of research, but a 4/1 winner from 3 selections last night at Wolverhampton (shame the other 2 were non runners) and spotted a very easy 8/1 winner at Nottingham today, Tomahawk Kid. 🏇💨💨
Artful Prince ran no sort of race again, and unless in a proper shit race next time, can’t be a betting proposition. But obviously as soon as we jump ship, he bolts in at a decent price! 

⭕️ Unfortunately another post with not much detail as not at home and typed on my phone:

7.10pm Chelmsford
KEEP UP KEVIN 7/1 – NEW EYECATCHER. I spotted Kev first time out at Kempton, only getting beat 6 lengths at 66/1. He then ran Kempton again and still showed just enough to think yeah there’s a race in him. 
Twelve days later he was out again at Sandown, in what could be a good maiden. I put Atty Persse on here that day (Roger Charlton/George Baker/Frankel) who won impressively and was subsequently purchased by Godolphin.  Same distance and class today, albeit back on a synthetic surface (his dam is USA-bred).

4.55pm Newcastle
POPSIE’S JOY
 10/1 – has ran twice now since being an Eyecatcher, and this could be her last chance… 4th & 5th previously, one of which I wasn’t impressed with the ride she received (not Callum).  So good to see Fentiman back on now, who piloted her to her only victory, at Beverley.

9.10pm Chelmsford 
MULTI QUEST
10/1 – Can’t take credit for this one, as @DronfieldDuke told me about it, so I’ve taken a look:
Ran here last time and got no sort of run at all in the straight and finished full of running, hampered multiple times. That was a 0-60, and this is a 0-50 class 7, so therefore horses rated that low aren’t that predictable, but she’s a C&D winner when rated 45. Looks a good price today considering the drop in class and if able to get a clear passage.

Thanks for looking. Hopefully a winner… or three. 👍🏼🏇

Wed 28th Sept

September 28, 2016 Comments off

Very quick post as at Nottingham races…

18/1 Artful Prince 3.30pm.  Ran a bad race last time, but comment here from race previous:

ARTFUL PRINCE (Dutch Art) 8/1, OR70. Top weight of 10 stone, and was kept out the back and finished well, just out of the places. Last few wins have been with Joe Doyle, but when he was claiming 3lb. All wins have been over 9 or 10f. Might have been on a going day today, as was beaten 40 lengths prior, at Newmarket, with Paul Mulrennan onboard…

Rated 69 today and C&D at Nottingham.  Looks a hard race though….

Tues 27th Sept – Wolverhampton

September 27, 2016 Comments off

Wolverhampton under lights

Even though there’s been no blog the last two days after a shocking Saturday, the views have been decent… So thought I’d put something on here for people to see, who obviously are looking to see something new…. 👍🏼
Reflation ran again today… After running a terrible race on Saturday… Won today at 4/1!  😖 left it alone.  No Eyecatchers Sunday or Tuesday… So I’ve looked tonight and come up with these below…. I’ve had VERY small bets on them mainly just in case… All have reasons or stats why they COULD place… The 50/1 is not a patch on the 40/1 I put up two or three weeks ago… But I have spotted something that might come off…. More than likely finish last… 

Thanks for looking. Been totally honest with their chances, but obviously I want them to win, otherwise what’s the point… 🏇

(Edit:) AYR meeting now Called Off: Waterlogged. That was the one I was the most confident of! Will save for next time…

(Edit 2:) RAFAAF Non Runner!!!

Sat 24th Sept – Newmarket, Ripon, Hamilton, Chester

September 23, 2016 Comments off
mehmasjpg

MEHMAS

3.30pm Newmarket – Middle Park (Group 1)
MEHMAS 9/2 – Blue Point is only the favourite for this as he won last time, at York. Looking back at what he beat, that looks a shit race.  Mehmas was 2nd to Churchill last time out, but that was over an unsuitable trip, as Mehmas is a 6f horse.  Mehmas and Blue Point met at Goodwood in July, and the son of Acclamation who is retiring at the end of the season won, carrying 3lb more.  He’s also previously beat Intelligence Cross twice.  So at 9/2 I would much rather side with Richard Hannon’s runner.
KOROPICK 40/1 – Won a class 4 first time out very easily at Thirsk, so became an Eyecatcher (one to follow)… Then he was stepped straight up to a Group 3 at Kempton. Another shite race – a two horse race in effect, and he came 2nd, to The Last Lion, who re-opposes today. Koropick shouldn’t really figure in this class, but at 40/1, I can’t not have a small investment, and having only had 2 previous races, he could improve for the experience and a 3 week break.

4.10 Newmarket – Cambridgeshire
STIPULATE 18/1 – A race where anything can win it! 35 runners!!! Last two winners have been 14/1, and in 2011 was won by Prince of Johanne at 40/1.
Instantly drawn to Brian Ellison’s only runner at the track, when I saw he was dropping Stipulate 6 furlongs from his last race at Doncaster! A race where he travelled second-last under Hanagan and was still on the bridle with 2 furlongs to go. Ellison also had Seamour in that race, who would have been his best chance/first choice, so that “could” have been a prep-race for this. He is a previous course and distance winner, but I wouldn’t see much relevance in that now as it was 4 years ago. But what is as interesting as it being Ellison’s only runner and only his 5th runner at Newmarket in 2016 (Rowley Mile & July Course combined – 190 miles each way) is it will be Oisin J Orr’s only 2nd visit to an English racecourse (first one being on Quick Jack at York a month ago). He’s coming over from Ireland just for this…. With his 5lb claim, Stipulate carries only 8stone 9lb here, and sports first time cheek-pieces. Looks good, reads good, but it really is a lottery race, although one I will be playing, 5 places E/W at Bet365. He’s only ever won 2 races, in 2011 and 2012, but he missed all of 2014 and 2015 (guessing injured). He has ran 5 times for Brian, and last 4 races combined, the 7-year-old son of Dansili has only been beaten an average just over 4 lengths, two of those races being at Galway.

4.25pm Ripon
SILVANUS 16/1 – One of the Eyecatchers. Put this up last time, was confident and he was made a late non runner at Yarmouth. Nothing to do with Midgley, Yarmouth scrapped the sprint race as the track was holding water – on the hottest day of the year! (Couldn’t make it up!). Also put Silvanus on here the race prior at Ripon… Quite simply wasn’t put in the race (imo). On to today.. a class drop (0-85) and Robert Winston rides for the first time as Mulrennan is at Newmarket. Strange booking as he’s only ridden for Midgley 3 times all year and only twice in 2015. Midgley had 1 runner yesterday – it won.  This I was shocked by: Winston, based in North Yorks,  has only ridden once at Ripon all year! Anyway, at 16/1 and 10lb well in, this is a cracking bet… if trying.

2.30pm Chester
UNDISCOVERED ANGEL 2/1 – Two-year-old daughter of Wootton Bassett who went off at 16/1 for her first racecourse appearance at Carlisle 17 days ago.  I was there an she opened up at 6/1 and just kept on drifting, whilst the fav went into a shade of odds-on from 5/4. The fav Euro Nightmare won by a length, with the filly coming 2nd. Slow away from the stalls, but the penny finally dropped and looked like a different horse coming up the hill. Euro Nightmare raced again last Saturday and was just beaten in a class 2, by 85-rated Now Children.  The horse who finished just behind Undiscovered Angel, Brogan, ran this week and should have won at Ffos Las, caught right on the line! So the form is solid.  Chester is not a course I like, and having tracked Karl Burke’s filly, I was hoping she would be bigger than 2/1 and not here. Burke not that hot at Chester, but has had 4 winners in the last 14 days.

4.05pm Hamilton
REFLATION 9/2 – Another of the original eyecatchers, and he’s done well since Connor started riding: 20/1 close 2nd and won here on Monday at 8/1.  Steps up a class today, but at least means he’s bottom weight of only 8 stone 9lb. Ruth Carr’s runner looks a danger, as he is seriously well handicapped and drops to a class 5 (form figures of: 2221) for the first time since April 2015. I can’t jump ship on Dod’s Reflation now, not since I spotted him in lady amateur races and said all he needed was a proper jockey to win, which has happened, but at 7/1 Meshardal will be a small investment too.

All the best if you follow me in on any of these – just remember, as much as I would like to bang the winners in every day – unfortunately it’s not that easy.
Thanks for reading.  If you find it of interest, or use the information provided, comments & retweets are appreciated.

Friday 23rd Sept

September 23, 2016 Comments off

A big disappointment yesterday. Waited til 8.15pm for that ‘performance’. Ideally drawn, looked a little keen before settling,  but yet again, they held him up mid-rear, and entering the bend to the home straight he was 9 lengths off the front, and with just over a 2 furlong run in at Chelmsford – WTD gave the horse no chance, and yet again he was eased down and never asked for an effort… Maybe they’re waiting for a 0-70 or 0-65…. I’m confident there’s an engine ready to hit 6th gear, but at the minute reverse seems their favourite cog. Others who saw the race, or any others I ever put up, always happy to hear your verdicts whether you agree, or not.

Nothing today, there’s one at Newmarket, who to me has the best form from the previous race, and there’s another I clocked when I was at Carlisle, but wasn’t expecting it to then be favourite for a big field race. Wasn’t really in the mood to investigate further.

Already got 4 lined up for Saturday though…. 🏇👍🏼 thanks for looking. Hopefully it’s back to winning ways, although 14/1 & 8/1 winners from minimal selections the last 4 days softens the blow of yesterday.

If a horse isn’t good enough then I have no problem at all losing money, but when they’re non triers it’s very frustrating. Which also ties in with a couple of others I put on here earlier this week… I too believe they could have won.